The Coming Global Debt Storm & Food Shortages

[It's Mike]

Agreed, but there's another issue at play: just the mere mention of foul play, raises the ire of many "free" thinkers, whose normalcy bias prevents them from seeing or thinking about anything outside the box.

On the other side are freaks who get some kind of rush off of bad news.

In both cases, it's the thinking that produces the behavior.

If you won't listen to the other side, then you aren't a free thinker. You are the problem.

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[bklynboy68]

It is. But I guess what you mean by "bringing it up". If you mean people are asking reasonable questions like "why isn't this getting any mainstream coverage when egg prices are crazy?" Sure, they should be applauded, not attacked. It's another when people question but then apply their own answers like "this is Biden's plan to starve people". Those people should be challenged for those positions.

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Sure, but "shut the fuck up" doesn't allow for this.

[It's Mike]

Sure, but "shut the fuck up" doesn't allow for this.

Not at all.

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[Darrin Stephens]

Our partisan voting actually does not have historical precedent. Prior to 1995 congress partisan voting had for about 100 years ranged 68%-76% with the median being around 73%. Since 95 partisan voting has steadily risen and as of 2021 was at 96% (neither side is statistically more partisan so before one side points to the other). So when you remove the 25% of more independent thinkers from each side you lose the brokers for common ground. That creates we no longer buy guns or butter we buy everything because the only way to pass a budget. WTF does this have to do with eggs?

Leadership at the executive branch has not helped. Obama was very partisan and neither successors have done anything to move the oval office to a less partisan position. We have created massive debt due to this Trump being king at 7.8 Trillion but Biden is essentially same trajectory if you back out expiring emergency expense. While we have had "free money" for a decade we have massively expanded the money supply to the point the majority of all US dollars in circulation were printed the past 3 years. Let that number sink in. The FED via QT is bailing out liquidity as much as it reasonably can but we are flooded with it (fyi they printed the money to begin with)

Inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods. Eggs production in 2022 was within 4% of 2021 levels which were the all time record in production. Now egg demand per capita in the US has risen in 2016 it was 250 per year and in 2022 it was about 290 per capita (I have no idea why). So a consumer base flooded with cash demands 15% more of a product so prices rise. Demand is rising far more than historical norm while production is about the same. Simple supply and demand sans conspiracy dictates exactly what should happen, prices rise. It is not a surprise if you look at the facts.

Globally we will in the very near future see a shortage of food production inputs due to war, deglobalization, and impending maritime issues that will gunk up the works of food production. The US is actually the best positioned as outside of some fertilizer we buy from Brazil but can produce ourselves, we can pretty much produce all our food inputs. China however produces 9% of what it needs to produce food domestically. A global shortage of fertilizer will strike the global market later this year, it is already known based on what has been taken offline recently. So prices will rise but the US, France, Chile and Argentina are actually the 4 countries best equipped to deal with this as they are the 4 that need to import food production inputs the least. This fact is also known by the Chinese and while they saber rattle a lot they simply would not survive beyond 60 days if a maritime blockade occurs due to invading Taiwan. So they have a real conundrum.

In the US the best thing we can do to balance the market (besides stop eating more and more eggs, I feel like I missed a diet fad or something) is for Congress to stop punting to the FED to do their job and actually overcome partisan BS to get our fiscal house in order. So that rise in partisanship level does indeed have real world implications we are all paying now. Sadly many will read this and agree it is an issue and only if the other side would do better. Sorry neither has immunity although personally I am glad to see MMT is losing a lot of steam now as the inevitable economics of debt have hit in the form of inflation. That is one dangerously stupid theory but my take anyway. But when you consider a fertilizer crisis, the fact we have an intermediate term gap of 900K workers due to demographics which will create longer term employment inflation, and still spending like drunks inflation will have oxygen to burn. Policy makers can not change demographics but they can get their fiscal house in order. That will likely mean putting country before team and sadly I am not optimistic about that. I know a wicked conspiracy theory for 1 side or the other is where the team guys will want but facts and basic economics still matter.

[NDL]

If you won't listen to the other side, then you aren't a free thinker. You are the problem.

Much agreed; we're at a place in society whereupon one group wants to believe anything and everything, while the other extreme wants to question nothing.

Neither extreme produces a thriving, healthy, society.

[bklynboy68]

This is just starting to be covered in the media here. Ties in with the thread title.



There's Gonna be a War in Montana
An analysis of visible propaganda in Bozeman, Big Sky, and Three Forks

Isaac Simpson

Jul 26, 2022

"In popular culture, protagonists and antagonists battle eternally for Montana’s precious land. Country folk fight off city folk in Yellowstone and the podcast Land Grab: A Podcast About the Place We Call Montana. Long before that Montana (1950) pit sheep farmers against cattle farmers. In Last of the Dogmen (1995) cowboys faced Cheyenne Indians. Of the 14 major film/TV projects scheduled to be shot in Montana, every single one involves some take on the battle for Montana’s soul. And Montana’s soul is in its land.

Land conflicts have led to at least one recent murder, but despite Yellowstone’s depiction of ranchers (our heroes) massacring greedy real estate developers with machine guns, so far Montana hot wars have been relegated to fiction."


https://thecarousel.substack.com/p/t...war-in-montana

Just found this Vanity Fair article that references the above article and works like a companion piece. Since we were talking about the division in the country the timing is perfect. These are people with serious cash flow too.



INSIDE THE DISSIDENT FRINGE, WHERE THE NEW RIGHT MEETS THE FAR LEFT, AND EVERYONE’S BRACING FOR APOCALYPSE

Preppers, techies, hippies, and yuppies are converging on the American West, the safest place to “exit” a society gone haywire.

BY JAMES POGUE

FEBRUARY 21, 2023

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023...ight-civil-war