Election Predictions

[It's Mike]

What do you all think? EC count and winner.

I'll go Biden with 289 but that's giving him Pennsylvania. I bet that gets challenged and if it flips i got it as a 269-269 tie (which will be the perfect ending to 2020)

I want a blowout. I don't see a way that Trump wins via a blowout so part of me just wants Biden to take Florida and NC and end this early just so it's over. I also hope in that case that he does not get the Senate. I think a controlled Biden will be an ok short term leader.

I gave Biden:

Penn (20)
Wisc (10)
Migh (16)
Ari (11)
Nev (6)
New Ham (4)
Minn (10)

Trump:

Ohio (18)
Fla (29)
NC (15)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)

[CaboChris]

You're really taking Biden to win? O ye of little faith...

Must be those polls again.

[fudd]

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[BlindtotheWorld]

Trump wins a minimum of two out of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.

[It's Mike]

We'll see. What do you see happening in the battlegrounds?

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[fudd]

Trump takes Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.


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[ziggysmalls]

I am a Cleveland sports fan so always prepare for the worst and expect the worst. So Biden wins. If I remove my inherent systemic pessimism, I will say that I won't be surprised if either guy wins. How's that prediction :-)

Parts of me think that the youth vote simply will overwhelm everything. Youth typically votes Democrat so this large turnout will help the Democrat party. Then again I do know that to many moderates, the BLM, Antifa, Reform the Police did scare the shit out of moderates. While today its a bit ancient news in August when some voting started it was big news. I also know that Biden's comment about fossil fuels will have an impact in Ohio, PA, Texas, and other fossil fuel states. Polls are saying Biden and saying they have learned from 2016. However I know quite a few friends who were polled and stated Biden because they didn't want to be targeted as a Trump supporter.

I simply don't know but I will go on record saying Ohio will be going Trump. I likely will be wrong and that is fine. Kind of settling into the mindset that Trump will lose and will have to accept the fact.

[rocknblues81]

It appears that Biden can declare a victory tonight, but Trump can’t.

[I Coulda Hada VH]

[Daisy Hill]

It appears that Biden can declare a victory tonight, but Trump can’t.

Yes. So weird. But what Biden needs is states like Florida or NC that will have their ballots pretty much completely counted by tonite, but Trump needs blue wall states who will not have their votes counted until tomorrow at the earliest.

So I would say that even if Biden takes both Florida and NC (unless he also takes Arizona) to not accept anything until the fat lady sings. This is 2020 and ANYTHING could happen


There are already poll problems in Ohio in Franklin county, which is the largest in Ohio.

[rchop84]

I gave Biden:

Penn (20)
Wisc (10)
Migh (16)
Ari (11)
Nev (6)
New Ham (4)
Minn (10)

Trump:

Ohio (18)
Fla (29)
NC (15)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)

That's how I see it except I think Biden flips at least one of those in trumps column..that's just going off data, not hunches and feels. MI, MN and WI are pretty much out of reach, PA may not know for awhile

[Bad to the Bone]

Trump will take Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio, he'll win in a romp.

[Daisy Hill]

I am a Cleveland sports fan so always prepare for the worst and expect the worst. So Biden wins. If I remove my inherent systemic pessimism, I will say that I won't be surprised if either guy wins. How's that prediction :-)

Parts of me think that the youth vote simply will overwhelm everything. Youth typically votes Democrat so this large turnout will help the Democrat party. Then again I do know that to many moderates, the BLM, Antifa, Reform the Police did scare the shit out of moderates. While today its a bit ancient news in August when some voting started it was big news. I also know that Biden's comment about fossil fuels will have an impact in Ohio, PA, Texas, and other fossil fuel states. Polls are saying Biden and saying they have learned from 2016. However I know quite a few friends who were polled and stated Biden because they didn't want to be targeted as a Trump supporter.

I simply don't know but I will go on record saying Ohio will be going Trump. I likely will be wrong and that is fine. Kind of settling into the mindset that Trump will lose and will have to accept the fact.

I did a call bank last night and I am not so sure. Lots of "already voted for Biden" calls. And I had to go pick up a pump yesterday and drove the same route into the Toledo area that I drove last week and was shocked by the number of Biden signs that had cropped up seemingly overnight. Certainly signs that were not available before have become available this week but it was surprising to see so many out there. But this is just NW Ohio which often votes differently than the rest of the state

Ironically I am accepting the fact that Biden could lose...or Trump could lose...or hell, this is 2020 and there could be a ground swell for Jorgensen. At this point I watch the experts on tv poking at those maps and changing the outcomes back and forth and trying to predict which states will go which way and just smile. NO ONE knows what the heck is going on.

[jimmy812]

I gave Biden:

Penn (20)
Wisc (10)
Migh (16)
Ari (11)
Nev (6)
New Ham (4)
Minn (10)

Trump:

Ohio (18)
Fla (29)
NC (15)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)

I just filled out one of those interactive maps and it ended up 270-268 in favor of Biden. That's giving Penn to Trump and I gave that 1 elector in Maine 02 to Biden. Shit, that's way too close.

I gave Biden:

Wisc (10)
Migh (16)
Ari (11)
Nev (6)
New Ham (4)
Minn (10)

Trump:

Penn (20)
Ohio (18)
Fla (29)
NC (15)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)[/QUOTE]

[It's Mike]

It appears that Biden can declare a victory tonight, but Trump can’t.

Just because Trump shouldn't doesn't mean he won't. I can see both of them declaring victory if it's close.