Call me crazy - sure-fire winner at blackjack?

[te5150]

I picked up this hint online from a professional card player and I've tested it three different places (including here in the arcade - never for real money. I'm still chicken shit.)

Anyway, the "sure-fire" way to win at black jack is to go in with 10 times the amount you want to win, then walk away when you win it.

Like I said, I've tried it on three sites that have blackjack games, and I've played 10 hands on each place (for a total of 30 hands of blackjack). The system failed once. That's ONCE out of 30 it didn't work.

First thing - you have to know the general rules of the game. Don't be stupid with hits. Next - you have to be prepared to lose before winning, cuz it'll happen.

So, let's say you want to take a casino for $50. Walk up to the table with $500 in chips.

First hand, bet $50. If you win, walk away. Win no more than you intended to. (Casinos get rich from people pushing their "luck.")

If you lose, you're down to $450.

Second hand, bet $100. If you win, you're up to $550 ($50 winnings - walk away.)

If you lose, you're down to $400.

Third hand, bet $150.

If you win, you're up to $550. Walk away.

If you lose, you're down to $250.

Fourth hand, bet it all. If you win, you're back to even and the process starts over.

If you lose, it's that unlucky 1 in 30 string where you lost four hands in a row. Rarely happens.

Am I crazy here? Could this not work at no-limit tables, but add a couple zeroes to those numbers?

Please hit the arcade and try it yourself. Something seems too easy. What am I missing? (Vegas is a 45-minute flight - somebody stop me!)

[te5150]

Just reassured myself. I won $50 10 of 10 times.

I'm freakin' out.

[willy4pres]

I picked up this hint online from a professional card player and I've tested it three different places (including here in the arcade - never for real money. I'm still chicken shit.)

Anyway, the "sure-fire" way to win at black jack is to go in with 10 times the amount you want to win, then walk away when you win it.

Like I said, I've tried it on three sites that have blackjack games, and I've played 10 hands on each place (for a total of 30 hands of blackjack). The system failed once. That's ONCE out of 30 it didn't work.

First thing - you have to know the general rules of the game. Don't be stupid with hits. Next - you have to be prepared to lose before winning, cuz it'll happen.

So, let's say you want to take a casino for $50. Walk up to the table with $500 in chips.

First hand, bet $50. If you win, walk away. Win no more than you intended to. (Casinos get rich from people pushing their "luck.")

If you lose, you're down to $450.

Second hand, bet $100. If you win, you're up to $550 ($50 winnings - walk away.)

If you lose, you're down to $400.

Third hand, bet $150.

If you win, you're up to $550. Walk away.

If you lose, you're down to $250.

Fourth hand, bet it all. If you win, you're back to even and the process starts over.

If you lose, it's that unlucky 1 in 30 string where you lost four hands in a row. Rarely happens.

Am I crazy here? Could this not work at no-limit tables, but add a couple zeroes to those numbers?

Please hit the arcade and try it yourself. Something seems too easy. What am I missing? (Vegas is a 45-minute flight - somebody stop me!)

I think nearly all games work in a similar way, if your good enough to pull away after you have won something then your a step ahead of the regular gambling types. I like to play the same way, I go in knowing what I am willing to lose and how much it's going to cost to get me to quit. The real gamblers can do the same thing, they also have 10 times the mental stamina I have. They also know when to stay low and when to jump, your gut feelings are more important then people tend to admit.

It could work better if you included some friends and played togethor at the same table. Agree ahead of time on how best to split the money (actual winner get's a larger portion of the percentage). So many of these smaller casinos are now adding table games, they wouldn't know what hit them.

[csm5150]

I work at a casino and I've heard of this system. Its basically called loss progression-you are increasing your bets each time you lose. Its certainly not a sure winner. I've seen people lose more than 4 hands in a row. Its easy to bet $400 on a computer, but its totally different at a live table. Best advice is to play basic strategy-you can pick the cards up at any casino gift shop. If you want to improve your odds somewhat, play basic strategy and count the cards-easier said than done.

[te5150]

I work at a casino and I've heard of this system. Its basically called loss progression-you are increasing your bets each time you lose. Its certainly not a sure winner. I've seen people lose more than 4 hands in a row. Its easy to bet $400 on a computer, but its totally different at a live table. Best advice is to play basic strategy-you can pick the cards up at any casino gift shop. If you want to improve your odds somewhat, play basic strategy and count the cards-easier said than done.

Two points: First, you bet (pun intended) laying down $400 on a computer is easy. I don't have the guts to bet real money. I don't think I ever will, really. But this sure was interesting to me. I've never won at a casino. This seemed too good to be true.

Second, basic strategy is what I used. Do the result vary when it's a bunch of players vs. one-on-one against a computer dealer? Serious question - I don't know much about gambling and playing odds. For instance, the odds of losing four consecutive hands - do they go up if you're sitting at a real table?

[te5150]

I just looked at my original post. I made a mistake in there somewhere, but the gist is the same. CSM5150 described it better anyway.

[Menlow]

So, let's say you want to take a casino for $50. Walk up to the table with $500 in chips.

First hand, bet $50. If you win, walk away. Win no more than you intended to. (Casinos get rich from people pushing their "luck.")

If you lose, you're down to $450.

Second hand, bet $100. If you win, you're up to $550 ($50 winnings - walk away.)

If you lose, you're down to $400.

Third hand, bet $150.

If you win, you're up to $550. Walk away.

If you lose, you're down to $250.

Fourth hand, bet it all. If you win, you're back to even and the process starts over.

If you lose, it's that unlucky 1 in 30 string where you lost four hands in a row. Rarely happens.

Am I crazy here? Could this not work at no-limit tables, but add a couple zeroes to those numbers?

Please hit the arcade and try it yourself. Something seems too easy. What am I missing? (Vegas is a 45-minute flight - somebody stop me!)

If you lose the first hand and are down to $450:

Then bet $100, if you lose you'll be down to $350, not $400.

You would then need to bet $200 on the next hand. If you lose, you're only left with $150.00 and your plan is shot.


I have heard a similar variation on this that could work as well, but the bets could get awfully high if you got on a bad run. It goes like this:

Each time you win a hand, put the winnings aside. Each time you lose a hand, double your bet on the next hand, until you earn it back. If you have the guts to keep doubling your bet even after losing a bunch of hands in a row, you should be able to be successful.

[rchop84]

Interesting. Who has the discipline to quit and go home after 1 hand though (if you win)?

I usually try and go with basic strategy with a win progression of 1 unit every winning hand.

I try and count cards...i'm too nervous of betting the minimum bet, then jumping in there with 100 dollar bet when the count is good. I won almost 9 grand a few years playing 2 hands heads up with the dealer...had 2 pit bosses standing on either side of the dealer towards the end. I wasnt even counting, just couldnt lose.

[ziggysmalls]

What you are talking about is basically a Martingale Negative Progression system. It does not work in the long run. In your example like it was stated you would be down to 150 after three losses in a row. Believe me you will do that in any blackjack sitting.

Its a good idea to set a low limit for winning and walking away such as 10% of your intiial buy in. Sometimes its good to use the 80% rule as well which means you will walk away when you hit 80% of your 10% goal. I have lost a lot of money trying to hit my goal when in fact I already made 80% of it.

Just play by the rules in blackjack and you should be ok. However I am a craps man myself because there is a little more freedom with the betting. Plus you get on a hot roll, somebody will tip you a black chip and that does not suck.

[Van Squalen]

Black chips indeed never suck.

Negative progression isn't foolproof, and really only works if you're planning to take home a negligible amount of winnings or are lucky in life and cards.

Basic strategy, knowing how to hit and double and split, is the best way to go, though six deck shoes aren't easy to count unless you've got photographic memory. Always best to play single deck BJ if you can, odds are a bit better.

[Mikey Metalhead]

how many can walk away?

and how many, like me, want to win at least 1000, I dont have 10000 to take to a table.

im in it for the big win, only happens about once every 5 time to vegas, but then it get really fun.

[rchop84]

Black chips indeed never suck.

Negative progression isn't foolproof, and really only works if you're planning to take home a negligible amount of winnings or are lucky in life and cards.

Basic strategy, knowing how to hit and double and split, is the best way to go, though six deck shoes aren't easy to count unless you've got photographic memory. Always best to play single deck BJ if you can, odds are a bit better.

6 decks is hard, and some of the jerk dealers cut the deck so far up its not even worth counting. The only problem with hand dealt is its usually a 50 or higher minimum bet...at least where i play.

[Van Squalen]

6 decks is hard, and some of the jerk dealers cut the deck so far up its not even worth counting. The only problem with hand dealt is its usually a 50 or higher minimum bet...at least where i play.

I usually play on a quarter table, cash in for five. if I get up to a couple grand, I'll hit the hundred table. If I make it up to a grand, but feel the table getting cold, I'll pocket the buy-in and play loose with my winnings, or walk out up for the day.

The key in blackjack is knowing how to play, and more importantly, determining that ALL the OTHER players at the table know how to play (if not, walk away and find another table - you dont' wanna play with a guy who stays on 16 when the dealer shows a ten up), building and rebuilding, and, hopefully, hitting your swing hands (double downs, splits, and such). Build and rebuild. Do NOT increase bets 'cause you're losing and hope to hit that 'one' hand you're 'obviously' due and make it all back on one or two bets.

That latter, is EXACTLY how casinos make their money.

If everybody's playing right at the table, and you build and rebuild and hit your swing bets, you can win at blackjack, unless the cards are just running cold all night...which happens, of course.

[Brett]

I usually want to win a couple grand when I sit at a blackjack table, but I am not going to fucking take out a second mortgage to have the $20,000 for that silly method.

Good players can win money at the game with smart betting, watching the trends, and making good decisons. Problem with blackjack is that you have to live with the stupid decisions of bad players, you can't stop them or force them to hit when they should. One of the big reasons I never play BJ anymore, I hate stupid players costing me money. Even at the big stakes tables, you have assholes who don't know how to play, and money is nothing to them.

Losing and then increasing your bets is how people lose tons of money, it's a huge mistake to go in with that mentality, you will never win. Fine maybe once in a blue moon you'll hit it and get even, but rarely, rarely does it ever happen. Vegas wasn't built by all the winners you know. I see it all the time. "I lost $10, ok I'll bet $20 now. Oh I lost that, I'll bet $50. Oh what the hell I lost that, I'll bet $100." Next thing you know you've lost 4 hands in a row and are down about $200. And yes people lose 4 or more hands in a row all the time, that's absolutely not uncommon at all. And if you've lost 4 or 5 in a row, GET UP FROM THAT TABLE! I used to leave after 3 losses in a row, sometimes I'll stay for 4.

[Van Squalen]

Yep, two great reasons to leave a table, even if the dealer's a smokin' hottie, even if you 'feel' like it's gonna change, even if you JUST sat down.

1. Table feels cold, dealer is drawing to winning hand repeatedly.

2. ANY one of the other players is playing stupidly - staying on 16 with dealer ten showing (oh, they can just feel that their next hit is a bust card, not caring or realizing it fucks up the whole table draw - sometimes you gotta take one for the team, assuming they all know they have to do the same, it all goes 'round), or splitting face cards or tens...I LOVE those people. Idiots.