2020 CoronaVirus Outbreak - That began in Wuhan, China and is spreading - Page 256
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  1. #3826
    Sinner's Swing! EJC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by It's Mike View Post
    testing is so far behind in many places that the numbers are often guesses. Kind of hard to predict death numbers when your data is that poor.
    I don't understand the media's obsession with testing. If you don't have symptoms, then just do your self quarantine and then be cautious.

    I'm 100% sure I would know if I had contracted any sort of flu.

    I was amazed at the stupidity here that they actually had to TELL people not to show up for testing if you had no symptoms.

    I'm also not going to go a have a colonoscopy if I'm not having any "symptoms".

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    Good Enough CalFB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by It's Mike View Post
    testing is so far behind in many places that the numbers are often guesses. Kind of hard to predict death numbers when your data is that poor.
    Yep, as my database admin constantly tells everyone when she's developing new systems for us, 'don't put shit in here, coz you'll just get shit back out.'

    A lot of people complain about modelling being inaccurate. The modelling is best guess based on the available data and a bunch of possible scenarios they throw at it. I'm sure some of the modelling algorithms can be improved too, and they will be. It's not perfect, but it's the best we have. This pandemic is a wild learning curve for all involved.

    Some great things are happening though. There was a vaccine scientist on TV here who said that they are currently working with 36 other countries, sharing their data and research in real time to search for a vaccine. That is modern tech at its best.
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  4. #3828
    Forum Frontman It's Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJC View Post
    I don't understand the media's obsession with testing. If you don't have symptoms, then just do your self quarantine and then be cautious.

    I'm 100% sure I would know if I had contracted any sort of flu.

    I was amazed at the stupidity here that they actually had to TELL people not to show up for testing if you had no symptoms.

    I'm also not going to go a have a colonoscopy if I'm not having any "symptoms".
    The theory being you don't know the death rate if you don't know how many people have had it. You also don't know how many people will get in once you open things back up. Neither of our nations have shown the ability to test everyone though so I kind of agree with you on not understanding the obsession with testing those who don't work in the medical or those showing symptoms.

  5. #3829
    Sinner's Swing! EJC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by It's Mike View Post
    So the question becomes how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to get the economy back. It sounds harsh but it's the real question leaders will need to answer. We are fortunate (this will also sound harsh) that it's mainly older people who are dying. Because if this effected only kids then you'd have a much harder decision to make.
    I don't consider someone with pre-existing conditions succumbing to a virus a sacrifice. I consider it nature taking it's course.

    All species have to weed out their old and weak in order to survive.

    Did I hate seeing my mom and dad die? I sure did. But I knew it was going to happen eventually based on their genetics and lifestyle choices (diet, smoking, alcohol consumption, etc.) If Covad19 was around when they were alive, I'm sure it would have shortened their life span by several months.

    There is "taking precautions" and there is shutting down 90% of the economy and causing 15 million jobs to be lost in the span of 3 weeks, closing down everything indefinitely, and hiding in our houses for the next 6 months.

    I think (personally) that we have now set a very dangerous precedent. If I'm wrong so be it, but I can see this happening now every year with every new strain of flu that pops up.
    Last edited by EJC; 04.09.20 at 07:02 PM.

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  7. #3830
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    A case for a National Health Care System for everyone:

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  8. #3831
    Gird your loins Daisy Hill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by It's Mike View Post
    The theory being you don't know the death rate if you don't know how many people have had it. You also don't know how many people will get in once you open things back up. Neither of our nations have shown the ability to test everyone though so I kind of agree with you on not understanding the obsession with testing those who don't work in the medical or those showing symptoms.
    Because testing is part of most of the plans in how to get the country back to work. You can only push this beast down for so long, then we all have to walk out of the door and out into a world full of invisible monsters. Asymptomatic super spreaders are the worst part of this. One asymptomatic super spreader in a workplace can shut down the whole business, infect the families of a large percentage of workers who then take it out to their workplaces. We can't wait for a vaccine, so identifying the enemy is the best way to fight back

    So most of the back to work plans involve testing. Finding out who had it and can safely go back to work or even give plasma donations that can be banked to use in case of a second wave

    Testing to discover "hot spots" and then contact tracing in order to minimize exposures. That is how this virus is going to be contained from now until the vaccine....find the hot spots before they become big and trace and quarantine

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  10. #3832
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJC View Post
    I don't understand the media's obsession with testing. If you don't have symptoms, then just do your self quarantine and then be cautious.

    I'm 100% sure I would know if I had contracted any sort of flu.

    I was amazed at the stupidity here that they actually had to TELL people not to show up for testing if you had no symptoms.

    I'm also not going to go a have a colonoscopy if I'm not having any "symptoms".
    Its very interesting Eric.

    My mother and father in law are both now in their 60s and both have pre-existing conditions that give them a much higher chance of having a bad outcome should they get this and they don't care.

    Yet we've got perfectly healthy people cowering in their homes in fear begging for the government to lock them up.

    I don't get it.
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  11. #3833
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    Quote Originally Posted by Get The Show On The Road View Post
    Its very interesting Eric.

    My mother and father in law are both now in their 60s and both have pre-existing conditions that give them a much higher chance of having a bad outcome should they get this and they don't care.

    Yet we've got perfectly healthy people cowering in their homes in fear begging for the government to lock them up.

    I don't get it.
    People like me are worried about our parents. My father sees my kids everyday in normal circumstances. If this thing gets into the schools it would take no time to get to everyone.

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  13. #3834
    Good Enough CalFB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJC View Post
    I don't understand the media's obsession with testing. If you don't have symptoms, then just do your self quarantine and then be cautious.

    I'm 100% sure I would know if I had contracted any sort of flu.

    I was amazed at the stupidity here that they actually had to TELL people not to show up for testing if you had no symptoms.

    I'm also not going to go a have a colonoscopy if I'm not having any "symptoms".
    Here, they aren't testing unless you have symptoms and fit certain criteria, i.e. you have been overseas, been in contact with someone that has been overseas or has tested positive.

    As for the colonoscopy, obviously, you do whatever you like, but bowel cancer screening saves a lot of lives. It's free for everyone over 50 here. In fact when you turn 50 you get a shit test kit sent to you in the mail like it's a birthday present.

    Not showing symptoms doesn't mean you don't have something. My brother is having prostate cancer surgery on Tuesday. He had no symptoms at all, just had his bloods done as a regular checkup and it showed a high PSA. They did a biopsy and found he had medium level prostate cancer and it needs to be taken out before it spreads.
    If you always search for bullshit on the Internet, all you ever read is bullshit

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  15. #3835
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    Quote Originally Posted by Get The Show On The Road View Post
    Its very interesting Eric.

    My mother and father in law are both now in their 60s and both have pre-existing conditions that give them a much higher chance of having a bad outcome should they get this and they don't care.

    Yet we've got perfectly healthy people cowering in their homes in fear begging for the government to lock them up.

    I don't get it.
    Because perfectly healthy (and young) people are also getting fucked up by this. Maybe not in large numbers but I suppose some people with responsibilities (Wife, Kids, Family) donít want to take the chance, if they donít have to.

    And thatís good for your in-laws. Iím not sure how one needs to influence the other.
    I also donít want my parents contracting it from somebody who ďdoesnít give a shit about themselvesĒ and just wants to go about their daily life.

    Their time doesnít need to be right now even though theyíre over 60.

    In other news, Iím on our balcony and itís eerie how quiet it is outside.


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  16. #3836
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    We need testing to see if a person has had it and once we do get that I think we will be amazed at the numbers.

    I view this as the stimulus package that Obama passed. I remember his models of the economic recovery if we did nothing and what it would be if we passed it. Well afterwards, his "do nothing" prediction actually outperformed the reality of his stimulus package. We will never know what would have happened had we done nothing. just like we won't know what would have happened with this.

    However we all know what the outcome was of the stimulus package and we will soon know the outcome of shutting down the economy.

    I bet Monday Morning QB in a month or so will be criticizing our approach to this. Models are models. Garbage In, Garbage Out. Honestly how many models has anybody put up there regardless of party that turned out to be correct? Economic, weather, etc. GIGO rules the day.

    I think part of the delay with getting testing to see if people have had the virus is they are afraid of the numbers. I am thinking it will show that over 80% of the population will have had the disease and then we will be facing the depression knowing that we went too far.

  17. #3837
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    And now a short break from our regularly scheduled pandemic...


    Historyinpictures

    ∑ 10 hrs ∑

    Swimmers watching the mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb test near Las Vegas, 1953.





    Thank you... we now return you to our pandemic, already in progress.

  18. #3838
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    As far as the economy goes I think we where headed for recession anyway. Its every 8-10 years since the end of WW2. Every debt bomb we set up hurls the USA closer to a depression because its never paid off. The Federal Reserve was handing out billions to banks since September 2019 they never tell you which banks. Now its trillions with more to go. We are now seeing the new tricks rolled out like loans to households and business by the Federal Reserve itself. Its almost like they have a think tank for all this someplace? It's like many have said on here it works great in times of crisis but its never paid down during boom times.
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  19. #3839
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    Western nations by and large are getting deeper and deeper in debt, letting their manufacturing base dwindle, and becoming more and more dependent upon an authoritarian communist state.

    It's a great plan.

    This should be the #1 discussion in any national election, and we don't even bring it up.

    Ronald Reagan and other past POTUS that fought communism for fifty years would be fucking mortified to see what we have allowed to happen.
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  21. #3840
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    It seems to me the core of manufacturing outsourced to China started under the Reagan years. Steel and electronics. The computer age under the next several administrations cemented it. Nixon is the one who started it. He told Mao you build it and we buy it. You get rich and we get richer. And no nuclear war and they bit. I think Trump is using the same game plan with North Korea but he's not taking the bait.
    Last edited by edwardv; 04.10.20 at 06:26 AM.
    EVH 1979: Well, actually it's not much of a vacation, because we run everything ourselves. We design our own album cover, we have to be in the office every day to sign checks - the whole corporation revolves around us. Nothing can be done without our approval. We even have photo approval.

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