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  1. #1
    Atomic Punk bklynboy68's Avatar
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    Default China Prepares the People's Liberation Army for War

    By John J. Xenakis

    China's General Staff Headquarters issued a harsh directive on Wednesday to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for war: 

    In 2013, the goal set for the entire army and the People's Armed Police force is to bolster their capabilities to fight and their ability to win a war... to be well-prepared for a war by subjecting the army to hard and rigorous training on an actual combat basis.
    Although past directives have directed soldiers to be prepared in case of war, this year's directive, for the first time, uses the Chinese word "dazhang," which means "fighting war," and uses it 10 times in the 1000 word directive. 

    Last month, China announced plans to board and seize foreign ships in the South China Sea, starting in 2013, and has been conducting naval drills with warships in preparation. 

    While the official directive does not mention Japan, various commentaries makes clear that Japan is the would-be adversary. VOA, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), China Military Online (Beijing), and People's Daily Online / Military (Beijing)

    China steps up nationalistic war-like rhetoric

    China's military budget has been increasing exponentially for years, as I and others have reported, and this year it's finally paying off: China's military is deploying a large number of new warships, tanks, missiles, submarines, and strike aircraft, much of it in preparation for potential full-scale war with the United States. 

    These weapons include hundreds (and perhaps thousands) of mobile, nuclear ballistic missiles targeting American cities and newly developed missiles capable of striking and disabling American aircraft carriers. For the first time in its modern history, China has the firepower to contest control of disputed territory far from its coastal waters. 

    Flush with pride and confidence, senior officers in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) are using increasingly hawkish and nationalistic rhetoric when discussing issues related to Japan or the United States. Some of these officers call for "short, sharp wars" to assert China's sovereignty, or to "strike first," "prepare for conflict," or "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys." 

    The United States has mutual defense treaties with Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and a number of other countries. The purpose of those treaties, signed after WW II, was to discourage anyone from starting a new war, since anyone fighting a war with one of these countries would automatically have a war with the United States as well. 

    Dai Xu, a Chinese Air Force Colonel, is arguing for a short, decisive war with one of China's neighbors--Vietnam, the Philippines, or Japan--in order to establish sovereignty over the Pacific region without risking war with the United States. This is the "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys" philosophy. According to this theory, America will NOT honor its mutual defense agreements with any of these countries, because the U.S. will not want to risk having its cities destroyed by Chinese ballistic missiles. He points to China's 1962 border clash with India, which China won decisively, leading to decades of peace. 

    Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real.

    This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia. We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.
    As one Chinese analyst put it, the Americans will "run like rabbits." Another one said, "If there is a clash in the South China Sea, the possibility that foreign countries would intervene is low, and any conflict would not last long." Defense News (Washington) and Reuters

    China's historic mistake

    Anyone who understands even a little generational theory can quickly understand that China is making a historic mistake that will be a disaster for everyone. 

    China's 1962 border clash with India did not lead to a wider war because the countries were in a generational Awakening era; with both countries being run by survivors of World War II and, respectively, Mao's Communist Revolution civil war and the bloody Hindu/Muslim war that followed Partition. Each of these wars were extremely brutal, creating tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties and refugees, and no one who survived either of those wars would ever allow it to happen again. 

    Today, China, India, and America are in generational Crisis eras. The survivors of World War II are all gone. Today's leaders have had an easy life, where their worst crisis was a sex scandal. They have no personal memory of the horrors of WW II, and the Gen-Xers think that any older generation who even talks about it is completely full of crap. 

    The Chinese, as well as many Americans, believe that President Obama would not strike back if China launched one of these "short, sharp wars" against one of its neighbors. Obama, according to this view, would be like Neville Chamberlain after Hitler attacked Czechoslovakia. 

    This view overlooks the extreme nationalism of a generational Crisis era. President Obama would not have any choice if Congress declared war, which might happen within hours of any Chinese attack. 

    This view also overlooks the hard lesson that came out of the Neville Chamberlain episode. Britain excused Germany's attack on Czechoslovakia, but also warned that any further aggression would lead to war. So Obama may have his Neville Chamberlain moment, but it would only delay war.

    China today is giddy with military power to the point of mass hysteria and extremely overconfident. They're ready for war, and they're anxious to go to war. They have a military strategy of attacking America's weak points that they believe will lead them to a quick victory, because America won't risk having its cities attacked. 

    Nothing can be further from the truth. Generational Dynamics predicts that when China makes its move, and that day seems very close, then the war won't end until every nuclear weapon on all sides has been launched against some enemy's targets. By the end of the war, there could be some 3 billion deaths, leaving 4 billion of so survivors to carry on and try to rebuild the world.


    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2...-Ready-for-War


    http://www.voanews.com/content/china...r/1585348.html
    Last edited by bklynboy68; 01.19.13 at 02:31 PM.
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  2. #2
    Forum Frontman fudd's Avatar
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    The next massive war will likely end the end of civilization. Nukes and other crazy shit. And I still say that the next war(again) will be caused by a Middle Eastern country like Iran or Syria likely towards Isreal.

  3. #3
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    China has lots of grudges against Japan that they still have not let go.

    It wouldn't shock me, knowing what I know about China.
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    Any army prepares itself for war. That's the purpose of an army - wage war.
    Little Dreamer

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    Atomic Punk bklynboy68's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little Dreamer View Post
    Any army prepares itself for war. That's the purpose of an army - wage war.
    I guess you skipped the part in the article where they address your point.
     "He has a swaggering retro machismo that will give hives to the Steinem cabal" -Camille Paglia on Donald Trump

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    "My beef is people thinking Bon Jovi is good cuz they sold lots of records to housewives." -tango

    "But being number one doesn’t really mean jack fuck all. We sold twice as many records as other records that year (1984) that landed in the Number One position." ~Eddie Van Halen

  6. #6
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    The powers that be in the Intelligence Community of the United States believe that we will be at war with China within the next five years. They believe we are replaying the 1930's in regards to fascist expansionism, therefore you will notice the lack of discussion of our defense spending as our deficits continue to go through the roof.

    They are under the opinion that China and North Korea are going to attack South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, and they believe that the United States will not do much about it once they do.
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    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    Edit: They believe that China doesn't think we will do anything about it.
    Taylor Swift is nice to look at. Adele can sing.

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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave's Dreidel View Post
    Edit: They believe that China doesn't think we will do anything about it.
    And they're probably not wrong. Wonder what kind of support that kind of campaign would get from the American people. That would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like Grenada.
    Dealing with it.

  9. #9
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    I've heard the ideas from several about the "Chinese threat", but it seems incredibly unlikely to me (not being an expert), but more importantly, to the vast majority of analysts.

    China is experiencing a period of growth and wealth at a rate almost unheard of in history. It is THE world exporter with no signs of losing that position in the forseeable future. It has massive investments in Africa especially, as well as other areas of the world. Oil, Gas, rare earth metals etc. and is developing there very quickly. Entire cities and infrastructure are being built to accomodate this new raw material extraction, necessary to power and feed it's industry. (Check out Angola, for example)

    Historically, nations tend to start (not respond to) wars when their domestic economies are in trouble. This doesn't tally with China's situation.

    The ownership rangles in the Pacific, worrisome as they are, are unlikely to develop into a war since no one nation would be willing to take the risk of an overt capture of land. It would bring worldwide condemnation, plus the risk of retaliation, neither of which any side wants.

    The very things that have cost the West so dearly: Selling off the manufacturing base, outsourcing of industry, very costly foreign interventions and wars etc, are exactly the things that the new China has been avoiding, and has benefitted greatly from that.

    China will very soon be one of the world's historical economic superpowers (if it isn't already) on a level with the USA in the twentieth century, Britain and France in the nineteenth, and so on. The Western media will continue to ramp up the imminent threat of Chinese military aggression, even though most indicators point to that not being the case and certainly not in China's best interests, when it is doing so spectacularly.

    If anything, I would wager that it's increased military spending, still small compared to the USA, is more in line with protecting interests rather than stealing more.

    Nobody wins a superpower war. Nobody gets the resources. Nobody keeps their industry. Nobody does trade. A hell of a lot of people die.

    Bad for business.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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  10. #10
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    If the thought process you hold was accurate, there would never be any wars.

    Unfortunately, most people in power don't think as you do. They have no problem sending other peoples children to die. There is also a deep seated hatred between the different Asian races that is hard for many of us over here to understand.

    I would be shocked if within the next five years China has not moved against Taiwan and Japan.
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  11. #11
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave's Dreidel View Post
    If the thought process you hold was accurate, there would never be any wars.

    Unfortunately, most people in power don't think as you do. They have no problem sending other peoples children to die. There is also a deep seated hatred between the different Asian races that is hard for many of us over here to understand.

    I would be shocked if within the next five years China has not moved against Taiwan and Japan.
    I'm not saying you're wrong at all DD. People who seem to get into positions of power don't always think rationally, megalomania being a pre-requisite to holding office it seems. Also, agreed on the hatred thing, although it's less of a Israeli-Arab kind of hatred, with huge historical, religious and idealogical differences, and more based only on history and a sense of superiority.

    I guess my point was that China has been building itself as an economic powerhouse more than a military one. Any Chinese strike, whether purely aggressive or "pre-emptive" (hate that term) would have such disastrous effects for China's ambitions (Trade embargos, worldwide ostracisation, refusal to export presently badly needed raw materials to China etc, not to mention risking non payment on all those trillions of dollar treasury bills and government bonds) that military action would simply be ridiculous. And let's not forget, whatever we might be told, the Chinese authorities are far from stupid.

    The author of the piece that was posted at the top of this thread has written a followup article to answer questions raised and any criticisms. I found the first article a little hysterical (Hitler comparisons, random quotes, a little bit of jingosim) and his second is even more flimsy. The author's "generational" theories are not exactly watertight in the first place and he's not averse to a little xenophobia either, from what I have researched about him. Of course, the piece was probably posted to generate a little healthy discussion rather than a be-all-end-all factual statement.

    I do hope that I'm right in my opinions too. Any potential full scale conflict involving nuclear powers frightens the shit out of me.

    My money is still on India - Pakistan doing the unthinkable before anyone else, though.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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  12. #12
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    I wouldn't base any of my thoughts on due to that guys article. Heck, someone on here once posted a "pro Iran from a Jewish perspective" article on here. You can find someone on the internet that has written an article supporting anything.

    However, if anyone just spends thirty minutes reading official statements by China, and official statement releases by our government, it is enough to raise valid concerns.

    Their government controlled television has been ramping up the "Japan" rhetoric for months.

    The Chinese people themselves might not by and large want anything to do with a war with anyone, however, I do not believe that the leadership of the Communist party in China holds the same viewpoint.

    Just as most Germans were not anti-Semitic psychopaths, but the end result was still war. That is the danger in any totalitarian form of government, one man or a handful of men can lead a nation of a billion people to war, against those peoples wishes.

    All it takes is a certain number of people "just following orders" for it to be accomplished.
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  13. #13
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    I always laugh when I hear people say: "But China spends far less than America on defense!" Uh yeah....when you steal half of the designs through industrial espionage, thereby bypassing the RnD costs, and you have sweatshop labor develop the remainder, yeah...you're gonna spend less than us.

    They aren't hiding their ambitions, folks. They are investing in developing stealth aircraft, drones, missles to take out aircraft carriers (gee, I wonder whose carriers they would like to take out?), anti-sub tech, and weapons to take out satellites (like the ones our armed forces are completely dependant on).

    I don't think they would provoke a war with us because of the mutually assured economic destruction, but you still have to be on guard. It's not jingoistic to look at a communist country with abhorrent humans rights records developing real military strength with a cocked eyebrow.
    CNN may think my opinion matters, but you shouldn't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsbll4 View Post

    I don't think they would provoke a war with us because of the mutually assured economic destruction, but you still have to be on guard. It's not jingoistic to look at a communist country with abhorrent humans rights records developing real military strength with a cocked eyebrow.
    yet we keep trading with them.

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    "The less I needed, the better I felt." ~ Charles Bukowski.

 

 

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