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  1. #1
    Hang 'Em High
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    12.17.17 @ 09:58 PM
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    Greece and the Greek Economic Crisis

    How shock waves will hit US if Greece drops euro

    By MATTHEW CRAFT

    NEW YORK (AP) - The unthinkable suddenly looks possible.

    Bankers, governments and investors are preparing for Greece to stop using the euro as its currency, a move that could spread turmoil throughout the global financial system.

    The worst case envisions governments defaulting on their debts, a run on European banks and a worldwide credit crunch reminiscent of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.

    A Greek election on Sunday will determine whether it happens. Syriza, a party opposed to the restrictions placed on Greece in exchange for a bailout from European neighbors, could do well.

    If Syriza gains power and rejects the terms of the bailout, Greece could lose its lifeline, default on its debt and decide that it must print its own currency, the drachma, to stay afloat.

    No one is sure how that would work because there is no mechanism in the European Union charter for a country leaving the euro. In the meantime, banks and investors have sketched out the ripple effects.

    They think the path of a full-blown crisis would start in Greece, quickly move to the rest of Europe and then hit the U.S. Stocks and oil would plunge, the euro would sink against the U.S. dollar, and big banks would suffer losses on complex trades.

    A full-blown crisis would cross the Atlantic through the dense web of contracts, loans and other financial transactions that tie European banks to those in the U.S., experts say.

    Blythe, the professor at Brown, believes credit default swaps, the complex financial instruments made infamous by the 2008 financial crisis, would provide the path.

    Banks created the swaps to sell as insurance for loans. After lending money to a business or government, investors can turn to a bank and take out protection on the amount they lent. If the borrower runs into trouble and can't pay - say, the government of Spain defaults - the banks that sold the insurance cover the loss.

    A $2 billion trading loss that JPMorgan Chase revealed in May, traced to a hedge against the Europe crisis, shows just how easy it is for even the safest and savviest of banks to slip up.

    And it doesn't even take a default for a credit default swap to go bad.

    If traders think other countries will follow Greece, they'll drive up borrowing rates by selling government bonds, which also pushes up the cost of insuring their debt. That's similar to how your neighborhood insurance agent handles a teenage driver.

    In the derivatives market, where credit default swaps are traded, there's a twist. When markets treat Spain like a bad credit risk, those who took out insurance on Spanish debt to protect against a default can force the banks that sold the insurance to prove they can make good on the claim.

    To do that, banks cash out something else - U.S. government debt, gold, or anything easy to sell. In normal times, it's no big deal. In a crisis, it can lead to a cascade of selling, spreading trouble from one market to another.

    Another problem: It's not clear how much U.S. banks have at risk to Europe through credit default swaps because regulations let banks keep that information a secret.

    Just in case the worst comes to pass, analysts at Barclay's have attempted to estimate the fallout. They say it would be like the days after the investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. This time, they project that oil would fall to $50 a barrel, stock markets outside of Europe would plunge 30 percent, and the dollar would soar to trade nearly even with the euro.

  2. #2
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    12.18.17 @ 03:51 AM
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    Default

    I think this is bullshit.

    If a tiny little country like Greece can affect the world financial markets, we need to re-evaluate what the hell we are doing with global finance.

    Greece is 0.44% of the world's economy.

    The US is 21.67%.

    I mean come on. Let's get real. Looks like another reason for the markets to panic, all the joe schmoe's in the world panic and sell, and then the institutional investors jump in and buy everything at the bottom, there is a last second fix, and then global markets rise to new record highs.

    Call me a skeptic, but I think the game is fixed.
    Taylor Swift is nice to look at. Adele can sing.

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  3. #3
    Good Enough Thai Boxer 9901's Avatar
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    08.28.16 @ 11:47 PM
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    Default

    So...back to the stone age. Got it.

    Time to break out the old hammer and chisel because thats where were headed folks!
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  4. #4
    Hang 'Em High
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    12.17.17 @ 09:58 PM
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    Default Pro-bailout conservatives win Greek election

    Pro-bailout conservatives win Greek election

    Jun 17, 5:41 PM (ET)

    http://apnews.myway.com/article/20120617/D9VF4U6G2.html

    ATHENS, Greece (AP) - Fears of an imminent Greek exit from Europe's joint currency receded Sunday after the conservative New Democracy party came first in a critical election and pro-bailout parties won enough seats to form a joint government.

    As central banks stood ready to intervene in case of financial turmoil, Greece held its second national election in six weeks after an inconclusive ballot on May 6.

    With one party advocating ripping up Greece's multibillion-euro bailout deal, the election was seen as a vote on whether Greece should stay in the 17-nation joint euro currency. A Greek exit would have had potentially catastrophic consequences for other ailing European nations, the United States and the entire global economy.

    With 82.5 percent of the vote counted, official results showed New Democracy winning 30 percent and 130 of the 300 seats in Parliament. The radical anti-bailout Syriza party had 26.6 percent and 71 seats and the pro-bailout Socialist PASOK party came in third with 12.5 percent of the vote and 33 seats.

    New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras cast Sunday's choice as one between keeping the euro and returning to Greece's old currency, the drachma. He has vowed to renegotiate some of the bailout's harsher terms but insists the top priority is for the country to remain in Europe's joint currency.

    "The Greek people today voted for Greece to remain on its European path and in the eurozone," Samaras said after his party won. "(Voters chose) policies that will bring jobs, growth, justice and security."

    Syriza chief Alexis Tsipras, who had tapped into a vein of deep anger over the plunging living standards faced by many Greeks, had wanted to rip up Greece's international bailout deals and roll back the new taxes, job cuts and pension cuts imposed in the last two years.

    That plan will have to wait, since the party that comes in first - New Democracy - gets the first stab at forming a new majority in Parliament. If they fail, the next highest party gets to try.

  5. #5
    Eruption
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    10.30.17 @ 05:08 AM
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Thai Boxer 9901 View Post
    So...back to the stone age. Got it.

    Time to break out the old hammer and chisel because thats where were headed folks!
    Good thing my kids bought me a new charcoal grill for fathers day!
    It is what it is

    I won't insult your intelligence by suggesting that you really believe what you just said

    I could tell that my parents hated me. My bath toys were a toaster and a radio.

  6. #6
    Sinner's Swing! Heisenberg's Avatar
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    12.17.17 @ 08:41 AM
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    Its all greek to me.

  7. #7
    Atomic Punk edwardv's Avatar
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    12.18.17 @ 08:25 AM
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave's Dreidel View Post

    Call me a skeptic, but I think the game is fixed.
    I would call you a realist.
    EVH 1979: Well, actually it's not much of a vacation, because we run everything ourselves. We design our own album cover, we have to be in the office every day to sign checks - the whole corporation revolves around us. Nothing can be done without our approval. We even have photo approval.

  8. #8
    Hang 'Em High
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    12.17.17 @ 09:58 PM
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    Default Springtime for Merkel

    The German Chancellor receives a frosty Greek reception.


  9. #9
    Eruption zoident's Avatar
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    01.15.16 @ 10:42 PM
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    Default

    This is bullshit more lies from the banks
    I was in Greece a month ago and one thing I can say is they LOVE to have a good time,they go out to dinner at 10 pm weekdays!

  10. #10
    Atomic Punk Dave's Dreidel's Avatar
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    12.18.17 @ 03:51 AM
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    Default

    Umm, they are going broke, that isn't a lie from the banks.

    The fact that any bad news from Greece sends the world markets into turmoil I would agree with you is ridiculous.

    Greece is 0.47% of World GDP. If Greece's economy disappeared, it would be akin to a $100,000 household losing $470 at the blackjack table.

    Big whoop.
    Taylor Swift is nice to look at. Adele can sing.

    Emperor Brett - "I can't believe you guys are analyzing song-by-song Van Halen III? What next, analyzing the script of Stroker Ace looking for some shred of Citizen Kane?"

    David Lee Roth did the impossible. He made Van Halen better. Deal with it!

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  11. #11
    Baluchitherium Scott's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave's Dreidel View Post
    Umm, they are broke, that isn't a lie from the banks.

    Big whoop.
    Fixed that for you.
    Winners come and go; legends are forever.

  12. #12
    Atomic Punk
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    Default

    European Crisis: Half of HIV Infections in Greece Are Self-Inflicted

    A recent World Health Organization report paints an alarming picture regarding the health implications of Europe’s economic crisis, including how some Greek citizens are infecting themselves with HIV in order to receive 700 euros in government benefits.

    The findings highlight how startling levels of unemployment and severe, mandated government cutbacks are trickling down to European citizens.

    The September WHO report concludes that the economic crisis that began in 2008 has “exacerbated” health problems in Europe and “exposed stark social and economic inequities within and between countries.”

    Greece has been among Europe’s hardest-hit, with its debt crisis causing the country’s economy to shrink and nearly knocking it out of the euro zone entirely.

    According to the WHO report, suicides soared by 17% in Greece between 2007 and 2009 and then another 25% in 2010. As the crisis deepened in the first half of 2011, suicide attempts surged 40%.

    Moreover, the WHO report said HIV rates have risen “significantly” and estimates that about half of new HIV infections are self-inflicted “to enable people to receive benefits of 700 euros per month and faster admission” to drug-substitution programs.

    The WHO report cited an October 2011 report from The Lancet, which cited a separate 2011 report by the University Mental Health Research Institute. The UMHRI report noted "the well-founded suspicion" that some problem drug users "are intentionally infected with HIV, because of the benefit that are entitled to (approximately 1,400 euros every two months)."

    The UMHRI authors said this may also be linked to the fact they will be able to receive quicker access to drug-substitution programs that can have waiting lists of three to four years.

    Greece’s unemployment rate stood at an alarming level of 26.9% as of September, tops in the euro zone. After Spain, which had a 26% unemployment rate, the next closest country is Portugal at 16.3%, according to FactSet Research.

    Athens has also been forced to take heavy budget cuts as it seeks to get its deficit under control and maintain support from the European Central Bank.

    According to the WHO report, health care access has declined due to a 40% cut in hospital budgets. An estimated 26,000 public health workers, including 9,100 doctors, are expected to lose their jobs.

    The WHO said an analysis of the EU survey of income and living conditions in Greece found a 15% increase between 2007 and 2009 of the likelihood of people reporting that they did not go to a doctor or dentist despite feeling it was necessary.

    “These adverse trends in Greece pose a warning to other countries undergoing significant fiscal austerity, including Spain, Ireland and Italy. It also suggests that ways need to be found for cash-strapped governments to consolidate finances without undermining much-needed investments in health,” the report said.
    "Watch what people are cynical about, and one can often discover what they lack.” -- Gen. George S. Patton

 

 

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