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  1. #1
    Atomic Punk
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    12.11.17 @ 04:37 PM
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    IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016

    America's economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new report.

    The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast predicts that China's economy will outflank the United States' in 2016.

    That moment would come more than a decade earlier than most forecasters suggest. However, other forecasts compare the gross domestic products and current exchange rates of the U.S. and China in arguing that it will be many years before the countries trade places. MarketWatch reported that the IMF is using what's known as "purchasing power parities," comparing what residents of both countries earn and spend domestically.

    Based on that comparison, China's economy will rise from $11.2 trillion in 2011 to $19 trillion in 2016. The U.S. economy will rise at a slower pace, from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion in that period. According to MarketWatch, China's share of the global economy will hit 18 percent, while the United States' share will lag behind at 17.7 percent.

    The finding comes at a rocky time for the U.S. economy. Though the job market has improved since the 2008 Wall Street collapse, unemployment remains high and Washington has struggled to balance stimulus and incentive programs against the need to close the deficit.

    In the absence of a deficit-reduction deal, Standard & Poor's rating agency last week announced that it was downgrading the U.S. debt outlook from stable to negative, warning that a failure to strike a deficit agreement could lead to a lower credit rating in the future.
    "Watch what people are cynical about, and one can often discover what they lack. -- Gen. George S. Patton

  2. #2
    Atomic Punk jimmy812's Avatar
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    06.03.17 @ 06:59 PM
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    I was thinking sooner.....
    2-time Fantasy Baseball Champion.

  3. #3
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    12.14.17 @ 12:39 PM
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmy812 View Post
    I was thinking sooner.....
    Me too...is anything even made in the U.S.A anymore? I'm Canadian, I love my American neighbors to the south, but the US is going the way of the British empire...soon to be a thing of the past. China is the next world power. Here in Canada the Chinese are buying up all sorts of real estate and businesses. There are tons of Chinese moving into the Toronto area, and they all seem to arrive here with bucketloads of money, buying very expensive homes, starting businesses and setting up communities. Everything is made in China now. We've really made a mess of things here in North America, wanting everything cheap and easy. All the shit that Walmart sells isn't made here...manufacturers have turned to the Asians to increase profit margins, but that will eventually lead to our downfall...it's already happening...better learn to speak Mandarin or Cantonese.

  4. #4
    Atomic Punk Little Dreamer's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 11:35 PM
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    OK but since they have 1.3 billion people, it kind of makes sense. Sooner or later, India too will surpass the US. They just have way more people.
    But it doesn't really matter. They may have a much larger population than Switzerland, for example, and a "bigger" economy, but the standard of living cannot be compared. So everyone just chill!
    Little Dreamer

  5. #5
    Forum Frontman It's Mike's Avatar
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    12.16.17 @ 05:40 PM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little Dreamer View Post
    OK but since they have 1.3 billion people, it kind of makes sense. Sooner or later, India too will surpass the US. They just have way more people.
    But it doesn't really matter. They may have a much larger population than Switzerland, for example, and a "bigger" economy, but the standard of living cannot be compared. So everyone just chill!
    this is a very good point. Not that there isn't cause for concern (because there is) but not about the actual size of the economy. Americans (and Canadians) should be far more concerned with govt and personal debt levels and employment rates than they should be the size of an economy where the average worker makes less in a year than i do in a couple of weeks. Who cares if your national economy is huge if your standard of living blows?

  6. #6
    Atomic Punk Wruff_ajax's Avatar
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    12.16.17 @ 11:45 AM
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    That's bullshit. Comparing standards of living is irrelevant and a really dumb and liberal way of gauging the situation. You could make just $2 a day and still make more than most Chinese workers. Who cares what their standard is. The grave reality for American manufacturing is that it cannot compete with a workforce of a billion people who will work for under $1 a day. There is no bright side to that for North America.
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  7. #7
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    12.14.17 @ 12:39 PM
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    Our current standard of living cannot be maintained if the only jobs left are those in the service sector...working at Walmart, McDonald's, Disney World etc...Sure everything is still pretty good for most of us now, especially compared to China. Check back in 50 years and see where our standard of living is if we stop manufacturing things. People won't have good jobs. Just look at what is happening with oil. I'm not really familiar with that whole industry, but something tells me that if Canada and the U.S. sat down together and tried to become a lot more self-sufficient with oil we could probably figure out a good solution to provide ourselves with much cheaper product. Instead, we import it from the middle east and everywhere else, watching them jack up the price any time they want. If you are paying attention, everything is not ok.

  8. #8
    Atomic Punk Little Dreamer's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 11:35 PM
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    The wages in China are going up every year, though. And middle class salaries are only 50% of the equivalent in the US. So if you're talking big cities, no one is paid $1 a day. They are paid $4/hr instead of $8/hr in the US (I'm talking minimum wage).
    Also truck drivers just went on strike in Shanghai to get higher wages. Things are definitely moving. Manufacturing ain't coming back to America or Europe, though.
    Little Dreamer

  9. #9
    Forum Frontman It's Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wruff_ajax View Post
    That's bullshit. Comparing standards of living is irrelevant and a really dumb and liberal way of gauging the situation. You could make just $2 a day and still make more than most Chinese workers. Who cares what their standard is. The grave reality for American manufacturing is that it cannot compete with a workforce of a billion people who will work for under $1 a day. There is no bright side to that for North America.
    ??????

  10. #10
    Atomic Punk
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    12.11.17 @ 04:37 PM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wruff_ajax View Post
    The grave reality for American manufacturing is that it cannot compete with a workforce of a billion people who will work for under $1 a day. There is no bright side to that for North America.
    ^^^^THIS
    "Watch what people are cynical about, and one can often discover what they lack. -- Gen. George S. Patton

  11. #11
    Atomic Punk Little Dreamer's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 11:35 PM
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    They don't work for a $1 a day.
    Little Dreamer

  12. #12
    Baluchitherium loveevhsince79's Avatar
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    10.23.15 @ 04:49 PM
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    Quote Originally Posted by vhin04 View Post
    Our current standard of living cannot be maintained if the only jobs left are those in the service sector...working at Walmart, McDonald's, Disney World etc...Sure everything is still pretty good for most of us now, especially compared to China. Check back in 50 years and see where our standard of living is if we stop manufacturing things. People won't have good jobs. Just look at what is happening with oil. I'm not really familiar with that whole industry, but something tells me that if Canada and the U.S. sat down together and tried to become a lot more self-sufficient with oil we could probably figure out a good solution to provide ourselves with much cheaper product. Instead, we import it from the middle east and everywhere else, watching them jack up the price any time they want. If you are paying attention, everything is not ok.
    A good portion of our oil problems could be reduced by building more distribution for the oil we get from Canada. We actually have a surplus of oil from Canada in our storage in OK but the problem is getting it to where it can be refined. Finding a solution to this problem would be a win/win for the US and Canada and reduce our dependence on oil from the middle east, Venezula and other countries.

    As for the IMF's prediction about the China vs US economies, I don't think this should come as a shock to anyone. Let's see, we have 300+ million people in the US compared to over 1 billion in China. They have a rising overall standard of living in China. There are more and more people in China demanding increased wages so the trend will continue. It's only a matter of time. When people make more money, they spend more money. It might actually start to even out if their wages rise and ours maintain so that we become more competitive. The bigger problem I see is the valuation of the Yuan.
    Life may not be the party we hoped for, but while we are here we might as well dance.

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  13. #13
    Atomic Punk Wruff_ajax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by It's Mike View Post
    ??????
    I should have quoted LD's post. But you followed up with what a good point she made, and I beg to differ. I think that measuring our own well being through drawing comparisons to the China worker is misguided. She says "just chill!", but I believe that we should be more concerned about what the future holds. We've ignored everything for so long that it's probably too late now. We've just chilled and sold ourselves out for far too long unfortunately.
    I agree with what you said about unsustainable debt and future employment prospects in North America.
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  14. #14
    Forum Frontman It's Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wruff_ajax View Post
    I should have quoted LD's post. But you followed up with what a good point she made, and I beg to differ. I think that measuring our own well being through drawing comparisons to the China worker is misguided. She says "just chill!", but I believe that we should be more concerned about what the future holds. We've ignored everything for so long that it's probably too late now. We've just chilled and sold ourselves out for far too long unfortunately.
    I agree with what you said about unsustainable debt and future employment prospects in North America.
    cool, thanks for the clarification on this wruff. wasn't sure what you were getting at originally.

  15. #15
    Atomic Punk Wruff_ajax's Avatar
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