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  1. #1
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Default 2009 Hurricane Thread

    Early predictions out of Colorado State look promising....still, it only takes one to ruin your year.

    Hurricane Team Predicts Average Season

    http://www.wftv.com/news/19115907/detail.html

    FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University have scaled back their prediction for the Atlantic and are now calling for an average season with 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them major.

    In December, researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach predicted an above-average season with 14 named storms with seven hurricanes -- three major.

    Gray said Tuesday the forecast was dialed down because of improved chances of El Nino conditions, which suppress hurricane formation.

    This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.

    The season runs June 1-Nov. 30.
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    I've talked (via email) with a few of the meteorologists I know, and 2 of the 3 seem to think that all early signs are pointing to another FL/Gulf of Mexico type season....swell.
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  3. #3
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    Yeah, you can go ahead and stop bumping this thread up.
    Dealing with it.

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    Wear the fox hat... Filthy 150's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rchop84 View Post
    Yeah, you can go ahead and stop bumping this thread up.
    Yeah.

    Every time I see it bumped up I think 'NO WAY...NOT YET!?!?!?' even though I know we are months away.
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  5. #5
    Hang 'Em High Hurricane Halen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Filthy 150 View Post
    Yeah.

    Every time I see it bumped up I think 'NO WAY...NOT YET!?!?!?' even though I know we are months away.
    June 1st kicks off the season. 3 weeks away even tho I don't think things really heat up or peak til 1st of Aug. Bottom line is this tho, I don't want a hardcore year for anyone along the US Coast.

    It would just be insult to injury esp in this economy.

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    I still cannot beLIEVE that Taylor was only 4 1/2weeks old when we all went though Ike. I'm surprised I was not a total and complete basket case being just 4wks. post-partum and hormones doing CRAZY things (or maybe I was and ya'll were just really nice in making me think I was just fine). lol
    Meet me in Cabo!

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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Hey, not trying to get anyone's hair on end, just thought I'd pass on what I had learned.


    Quote Originally Posted by KT View Post
    I still cannot beLIEVE that Taylor was only 4 1/2weeks old when we all went though Ike. I'm surprised I was not a total and complete basket case being just 4wks. post-partum and hormones doing CRAZY things (or maybe I was and ya'll were just really nice in making me think I was just fine). lol

    I hear ya, KT. Our oldest was about 10 weeks old when the buzzsaw known as Andrew was supposed to make landfall in Palm Beach County, and the "line" had the eye going straight through our little town up until about 24 hours before he struck. Thankfully for us (and unlucky for Homestead), Andrew decided to beeline due West and we got nothing more than a good windstorm and rain (thank God Andrew was a compact storm). Also thankfully, we did not go to stay with my wife's relatives, who lived a good deal South and who suffered roof damage from the storm.
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Well, if you're near any of the remaining sites, this could be cool.

    NOAA Hurricane Team Embarks on Atlantic Coast Awareness Tour

    Public and Media Invited to Tour Hurricane Hunter Aircraft


    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...90427_hat.html

    NOAA hurricane experts will visit five East Coast cities aboard a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft to raise awareness about storm threats and the danger of being caught without a personal hurricane plan. The five-day tour begins May 4.

    “We are bringing a life-saving message to coastal communities – now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm threatens your area," said Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. “Preparing a hurricane plan today could determine whether you become a hurricane survivor or a hurricane victim.”

    Hurricane specialists Dan Brown and Robbie Berg, storm surge specialist Jamie Rhome and Read will travel with the crew when the aircraft visits Newington, N.H., Farmingdale, N.Y., Raleigh, N.C., Wilmington, N.C., and Key West, Fla. The public and media are invited to tour the aircraft and speak with the team.

    The NOAA WP-3 Orion turboprop aircraft is used primarily by weather scientists on research missions to study various elements of a hurricane, flying through the eye of the storm several times each flight. The crew gathers and sends data by satellite directly to the National Hurricane Center so hurricane forecasters can analyze and predict changes to its path and strength.

    Staff from emergency management offices, non-profit organizations such as the American Red Cross, and several local NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices will join the NOAA team at tour stops.

    The hurricane awareness tour has been conducted for more than 25 years, alternating between the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, and is followed by NOAA’s hurricane hazard education campaign during national Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 24 to 30. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

    Tour Schedule:

    Monday, May 4: Pease Air National Guard Base, Newington, N.H., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
    Tuesday, May 5: Republic Airport at Farmingdale, N.Y., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
    Wednesday, May 6: Raleigh-Durham International Airport, N.C., 3:00-5:00 p.m.
    Thursday, May 7: Wilmington International Airport, N.C., 3:00-5:00 p.m.
    Friday, May 8: Naval Air Station Key West at Boca Chica Key, Fla., 1:30-4:00 p.m.
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  9. #9
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    Newington, New Hampshire? I only remember one time ever getting too worried about a storm coming through - '84 or '85 perhaps we caught the tail end of something. Some tree branches down, some power loss, but no need to roll out the blue tarps that I can recall!

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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Yep, was thinking the same thing. Almost like having a stop in North Dakota.

    And '85 it was.
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  11. #11
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Well, I doubt this will come of much but a rain event, but given the fact that the model data wants to bring this thing across FL, I think I'm doomed. Drainage ditches on either side of the street are already up to capacity.

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 182335
    TWOAT
    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
    BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
    SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
    IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
    NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
    AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
    THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
    SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
    MORNING.

    $$
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Well, looks like someone in FL is going to get wet.
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    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 281449
    TCPAT1
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
    1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
    PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
    MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
    THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
    THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
    OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

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  14. #14
    Atomic Punk chefcraig's Avatar
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    With the season officially here, this article makes interesting reading and serves as a cautionary tale for those in the path of these damned things. This is followed by a piece about turning these homes into shelters.

    AP IMPACT: Foreclosures add to hurricane hazards

    By TAMARA LUSH
    The Associated Press
    Monday, June 1, 2009 12:08 AM



    LEHIGH ACRES, Fla. -- Mike Manikchand points toward his neighbors _ a half-dozen empty, foreclosed-upon homes, sitting on weed-strewn yards _ and he wonders: What will happen if a hurricane slams into southwest Florida this year?

    His simple answer: "A lot of these places will get destroyed."

    Unoccupied, these homes would be defenseless in a storm; there will be no one to put up shutters, batten down garage doors and otherwise secure homes. But that's not all. Nearby homes and their residents would also be at risk from wind-propelled debris.

    Lehigh Acres and other communities at the epicenter of the nation's housing crisis are coming to realize that this year's hurricane season, beginning June 1, represents yet another pitfall. Hurricanes could make hazards of thousands of foreclosed-upon houses, and their diminished value could decrease even more.

    "Here's your choice," said Julie Rochman, president of the Tampa-based Institute for Business and Home Safety. "Spend a little bit of time and money to secure the properties to withstand wind and water or not do the right thing and have the homes become damaged and are valued less."

    The Associated Press Economic Stress Index _ a month-by-month analysis of foreclosure, bankruptcy and unemployment rates in more than 3,000 U.S. counties _ confirms that some of the areas most likely to be struck by a hurricane are suffering the most in this recession.

    In March, there were 281,691 homes in foreclosure in Florida and coastal counties in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    Lee County, where Manikchand lives, is among the hardest-hit counties in the country. A 22-year-old pharmacy student, he took advantage of a dismal housing market and bought a foreclosed duplex for $36,000.

    In coming months, he and millions of others along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will dutifully track tropical weather forecasts and stockpile batteries, flashlights and tins of tuna, hoping that hurricanes blow harmlessly out to sea.

    But who will secure all the foreclosed homes if a storm does approach? No one really knows.

    In some cases, a property management company hired by the bank could do the work. Or it could be a real estate agent, a homeowners' association or even resourceful neighbors who clear debris from yards and board windows. Yet no state laws mandate who prepares buildings before a hurricane; even officials from the Florida Division of Emergency Management say that securing foreclosures isn't a concern.

    "It's not an aspect that we really deal with," said John Cherry, the agency's external affairs director. "Our No. 1 concern is life safety."

    Quick evacuation will be the priority, not securing vacant homes, if a major storm looms, others say. But shutterless homes can be a major safety hazard in a hurricane. And a region full of destroyed or heavily damaged homes would depress real estate values even further.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters have projected a near normal year for hurricanes. They predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms, including four to seven hurricanes. One to three of the hurricanes are expected to be major.

    Randall Webster, director of the Horry County Emergency Management Department in South Carolina, said if a storm does hit, properties in foreclosure could slow recovery if the county can't immediately find the owner, "especially if it were in a neighborhood where others around it were taking care of business and this one gets in rough shape," he said.

    The issue of who cares for vacant homes during a time of crisis seems simple: The legal owner is responsible for securing the property. But communities are already struggling to get banks to mow lawns, much less put up hurricane shutters _ if they weren't swiped from the foreclosed home, along with appliances, copper wiring and air conditioners.

    If the bank hasn't yet taken the title of a home, the property is in a kind of limbo, and local officials or homeowners associations may have no legal right to trespass and secure it. And many hard-hit counties don't have the money or manpower to do it.

    "Simple logistics tells me (the banks) don't have the staff to follow up," said Kenneth Wilkinson, property appraiser for Lee County, which in March had the third-highest foreclosure rate in the United States, after California's Merced County and Nevada's Clark County.

    There are some places that are trying to board up windows and batten down garage doors, although largely to stave off crime. Wellington, in Palm Beach County, has gone to court to receive the legal OK to board up homes. And in Cape Coral, city officials have passed an ordinance that requires the owner of a foreclosed home to pay $150 to register the address and provide a contact number for the person who will maintain the property.

    Palm Beach County Commissioner Burt Aaronson has asked county attorneys to research whether it is legal to board up empty homes.

    "If we board them up, we're protecting them," Aaronson said. "Hopefully we will be able to keep some of the value up."

    Aaronson contends that the banks don't always maintain the homes and doesn't expect that they will in the days before a storm _ and if the county takes over that responsibility, then he wants the banks to pay.

    "We want to use the full power we have as a government to levy the greatest fines that we can to penalize banks for not taking care of the properties," he said.

    Horry County's Webster says there might be another way for public officials to take matters into their own hands.

    "If it became deemed a public health issue or public safety hazard, the county would have some legal recourse to secure it in terms of making it off limits or safer," said Webster, whose county includes Myrtle Beach and has seen foreclosures rise over the past year.

    Some banks say that they have a plan for hurricanes; JP Morgan Chase says it will use property management companies and bank field employees to make sure properties are storm-ready. And if the homes are damaged or destroyed during a storm, said Michael Fusco, a spokesman for JP Morgan Chase, the bank "acts just like a homeowner" and will file an insurance claim.

    Debora Blume, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo Bank, said her company hires local real estate agents who have been assigned to market bank-owned properties to secure homes against hurricane damage.

    But one real estate agent in the Fort Myers area said the process of putting the maintenance work out to bid and then getting approval from the bank that owns the property might not be workable as a storm bears down.

    "During a hurricane, we need to get out of town, not wait for approval for funding to secure a building," said Suzanne Sherer, president of the Realtors Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beaches. "I won't have time to get a bid from a handyman."

    In Lee County, metal hurricane shutters cover a few new, unsold homes. Many empty homes have swing sets in the yard, garbage cans strewn in the driveway and loose roof tiles, all of which could become projectiles during a storm.

    Sherer said it would be "devastating" if a powerful storm similar to Hurricane Charley, which hit nearby Charlotte County in 2004, struck Lee County.

    In Galveston, Texas, where more than 17,000 home were damaged by Hurricane Ike last year, there are still many empty homes _ but not because of foreclosures. The properties were damaged during the storm and owners don't have the money to rebuild.

    "These homeowners have the biggest hurdles as far as getting back into their homes," City spokeswoman Alicia Cahill said. "A lot of the homes that were affected were lower income to moderate income families who didn't have a huge insurance policy or a lot of extra cash lying around to make repairs."

    Tybee, Ga., mayor Jason Buelterman says officials there haven't considered potential problems with foreclosures during storm season. Their first priority, he said, is assuring the safety of island residents and tourists if a hurricane heads their way. Dealing with foreclosed homes will be an afterthought.

    Yet residents throughout the hurricane zone are worried, especially those who live in foreclosure-dotted neighborhoods. Armando Gonzalez, 72, retired from Miami to Lehigh Acres five years ago.

    He and his wife moved to a small home a few blocks from the city center, in a quiet yet thriving neighborhood. But in the last two years, his neighbors left, either because of foreclosure or job loss. Now he's the only one on his block; the home next to him has a broken window and the one across the street is only half-built.

    When asked what would happen to all the nearby, dilapidated homes if a hurricane hit, Gonzalez shrugged and grinned.

    "I can't do anything," he said. "Maybe I'll pray. God will save me."


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...053100878.html
    "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
    George Bernard Shaw

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    Atomic Punk chefcraig's Avatar
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    Foreclosed homes could become hurricane shelters
    By LISA ORKIN EMMANUEL

    MIAMI (AP) — Trying to make the best of a bad situation, federal officials might use foreclosed homes as temporary housing for hurricane evacuees in Florida as soon as this summer.

    The proposal would keep people close to their homes and communities instead of scattering them around the country, which happened when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans nearly four years ago. Thousands never returned.

    But the idea is still in its infancy and many questions remain unanswered, including whether the banks that own the foreclosed homes would agree to such a plan.

    "It makes all the sense in the world," said Jack McCabe, a South Florida real estate analyst, who has watched tens of thousands of homes go into foreclosure. "We have a lot of vacant units available."

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency told The Associated Press that it might consider using foreclosed homes if hotels, shelters and other housing options are full and only for a catastrophic situation, such as Hurricane Katrina. The idea was discussed at a hurricane drill this week in Florida.

    Jeff Bryant, FEMA's federal coordinating officer for Florida, said the agency will work with other federal agencies such as Housing and Urban Development and state emergency planners to see if it could be a solution.

    If the proposal works in Florida, it could serve as a model nationally. In April, there were 278,287 homes in some stage of foreclosure in Florida, according to RealtyTrac. The idea isn't wholly new: about 100 families were moved into foreclosed homes after Katrina, FEMA said.

    "When you have a diaspora that leaves the state it's very hard to get those guys back. You really want to prevent them from leaving the state," Bryant said. "We want to keep them in their same local community."

    FEMA would likely contact banks, other mortgage holders and their representatives to compile a list of available homes. The evacuees would then be assigned homes close to their own and FEMA would use a contractor, acting as its agent, to pay rent directly to whoever owns the home, said Jon Arno, FEMA's individual assistance branch director for Florida. His duties include finding temporary housing for disaster victims.

    If there is a consenting landlord and a legitimate tenant then there should not be any legal problems, said Chris Lafakis, an economist specializing in Florida and the housing market at Moody's Economy.com.

    "I think that it should be viewed more of a moral issue," Lafakis said, "what's best for displaced homeowners, than as a sparkplug for Florida housing market."

    Ruben Almaguer, the interim director of the state's Division of Emergency Management, said he wants FEMA to fast track looking into the option for this hurricane season, which began Monday.

    But there could be snags. McCabe said using foreclosed homes might be too costly and complex.

    "Could FEMA react quickly enough in concert with the developers and lenders to come to agreements to utilize the vacant housing units for the temporary needs of hurricane victims?" he asked.

    Another problem, said attorney Roy Oppenheim, is that neighbors might not want strange families moving in. But a displaced family would be better than squatters, and he thinks banks would look favorably on the idea.

    Bank of America spokeswoman Jumana Bauwens said "we would have to see more details, but it is something we would consider." Other banks said they would want to see plans before commenting.

    Some Katrina refugees said they wish they would have had the option. Angelo Edwards, who just returned to New Orleans from Houston three months ago, said it helps everyone.

    "It provides income to the bank, the person who holds the deed ... It's taking some of that inventory out of the market," he said. "With this program they could keep that family unit together."

    Cindy Bartholomae left New Orleans with her five children and eventually ended up in North Carolina without her husband, who stayed behind to work as a deputy. When she returned to New Orleans in 2006 they lived in trailer for a year.

    "If I had a place to stay that was closer it would have been so much easier for me," she said. "I just felt separated. My kids were lonely. They missed their dad."


    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...YkdDgD98JIAA00
    "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
    George Bernard Shaw

 

 

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