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  1. #1
    Atomic Punk ZeoBandit's Avatar
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    12.14.17 @ 05:57 AM
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    Default 2008 Hurricane thread

    NOAA predicts above-normal '08 hurricane season

    WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The approaching 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be above normal, with up to 16 named storms and up to five major hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday, citing climate conditions.

    The outlook, issued by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, calls for "considerable activity," with a 65 percent probability of an above-normal season, and an overall 90 percent chance the season will be normal or above, the agency said in a news release.

    A "normal" season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

    For 2008, NOAA said, there is a 60 to 70 percent chance of between 12 and 16 named storms.

    "The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity," said Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and a NOAA administrator, in the news release. "It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land. That is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms."

    The agency on Thursday urged residents of coastal states to be prepared for the season, which begins June 1. It said the outlook is based in part on lingering effects of La Nina, a phenomenon in which surface waters in the eastern Pacific are colder than normal.

    Storms aren't named until they are designated tropical storms, with sustained maximum winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become Category 1 hurricanes when their sustained winds reach 74 mph, and major Category 3 hurricanes when their winds reach 111 mph.

    The NOAA's outlook falls in line with predictions issued earlier by the noted Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team. In an updated forecast issued April 9, the CSU team predicted 15 named storms, an increase from its December number of 13. Of those, it predicted eight will become hurricanes and four will grow into major hurricanes.

    The team calculated a 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coast. In addition, the team said there is an above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

    The predictions came after calmer-than-normal seasons of 2006 and 2007.

    But "we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," William Gray, who co-heads the CSU team, said in December. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two. After that, we're likely to enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period."

    The 2007 season was the weakest in five years, despite two hurricanes making landfall at Category 5 intensity, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricanes Dean and Felix hit Mexico and Nicaragua respectively, marking the first time in history that two Category 5 storms made landfall in the same season since records started being kept in 1851, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    Of 2007's six hurricanes, only one -- Humberto -- made landfall in the United States, striking the upper Texas Gulf Coast on September 13. Humberto was blamed for one death.

    In 2006, there were nine named storms and five hurricanes. None made landfall in the United States. Gray's team that year had predicted 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them major.

    The NOAA said its outlook will be updated on August 7.
    "What we are dealing with here, is a complete lack of respect for the law" - Jackie Gleason, Smokey and the Bandit

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  2. #2
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Saw this on local news earlier. After last season's lull, I am not looking forward to this year at all.
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  3. #3
    Good Enough pal1800's Avatar
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    All we can do is hope for the best. It's gonna be stressful every season from here on out. Thats the legacy of Katrina. If one comes this way, I hope we can get everyone out this time. We know what to expect now, so there is no excuse.

  4. #4
    Good Enough namedmydaughterHALEN's Avatar
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    i dont buy into any of that crap. every year they make predictions and they get them wrong. last year way wrong. they have no way to tell other than guess. hell we all can do that.
    i work in an industry that is effected highly by hurricanes so we watch very carefully and cross our fingers. last one that came through, we worked 26 days straight. it was a cat 2!!!

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by pal1800 View Post
    All we can do is hope for the best. It's gonna be stressful every season from here on out. Thats the legacy of Katrina. If one comes this way, I hope we can get everyone out this time. We know what to expect now, so there is no excuse.

    The sad thing is, this already should have been a Legacy after the effects of Andrew were clear in a far more rural area. Personally, many of us 'weather geeks' have been as concerned about NYC as NOLA for a long time. Salt water inundation of the subterranean systems could close the city down in the aftermath and Lord knows what else.

    I still remember, and have on my computer, one of the last statements put out by the NOLA NWS office. In hindsight, it is eerily foretelling of events to come.

    000
    WWUS74 KLIX 282139
    NPWLIX

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
    MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
    ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

    MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
    LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
    FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
    DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

    THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
    PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
    FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
    BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
    WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

    HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
    FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

    AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
    AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
    VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
    ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
    WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

    POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
    AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
    INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

    THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
    THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
    CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
    KILLED.

    AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
    HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
    ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
    LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
    ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
    TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
    UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
    413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
    11/05/78 Hollywood Sportatorium
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    01/21/84 Hollywood Sportatorium
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  6. #6
    PM Goo with your concerns OLO's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VanHalenRules View Post

    000
    WWUS74 KLIX 282139
    NPWLIX

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
    MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
    ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

    MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
    LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
    FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
    DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

    THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
    PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
    FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
    BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
    WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

    HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
    FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

    AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
    AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
    VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
    ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
    WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

    POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
    AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
    INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

    THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
    THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
    CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
    KILLED.

    AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
    HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
    ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
    LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
    ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
    TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
    UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
    413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

    That is scary to read.
    ((Just My Two Cents))
    And thats about what its worth.

  7. #7
    Eruption
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    These storms fasinate me. Now that mom lives in Tampa, I watch more closely. I have a special (storm) fund to fly down there if needed. She always hangs at a Elementary school when they tell her to scram. The tough bird takes it in stride.
    I remember in 1972 we had a storm rip through Philly. Agnus. Half my hometown was flooded. Up here, we are totally unprepared. If a cat 4 or 5 hits New York, their fucked.
    Cross your fingers southern residents. As will I.

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  8. #8
    Good Enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by VanHalenRules View Post
    Saw this on local news earlier. After last season's lull, I am not looking forward to this year at all.
    Exactly! Even in a lull we had Hurricane Humberto come ashore here late last season. It was a (barely) Cat 1, that formed overnite, came ashore and was gone. It was crazy..not much damage, but did spawn some tornados.
    Dealing with it.

  9. #9
    carpe damn diem billy007's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron4406 View Post
    These storms fasinate me. Now that mom lives in Tampa, I watch more closely. I have a special (storm) fund to fly down there if needed. She always hangs at a Elementary school when they tell her to scram. The tough bird takes it in stride.
    I remember in 1972 we had a storm rip through Philly. Agnus. Half my hometown was flooded. Up here, we are totally unprepared. If a cat 4 or 5 hits New York, their fucked.
    Cross your fingers southern residents. As will I.
    My mom brought us to Florida in '72 to visit Disney World and we had to leave a day early because of Agnes. Didn't know it cause trouble all the way up in Philadelphia.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by billy007 View Post
    My mom brought us to Florida in '72 to visit Disney World and we had to leave a day early because of Agnes. Didn't know it cause trouble all the way up in Philadelphia.
    I remember having to help bring things in from the yard for Agnes, but ended up really getting nothing from the storm.

    My biggest fear is having a storm like Donna (1960) again with all the development that has taken place here in FL. Its track was much like Charley (2004) but was much slower so the destruction was more intense.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

    Hurricane Donna Track
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  11. #11
    carpe damn diem billy007's Avatar
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    1960, huh? And it looks as if it made it all the way to Maine. Might just explain my sister's name!

  12. #12
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    11/05/78 Hollywood Sportatorium
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    I've got dreams in hidden places and extra smiles for when I'm blue.

  13. #13
    Future's in the past....
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    11.03.17 @ 01:35 PM
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    Damn, I must have missed the news when they announced that there would be no hurricane supply tax-free shopping days here this year. Yeah, this makes perfect sense, make it even easier for people to ignore the mean season.

    South Florida demand for hurricane supplies is tepid
    With tax holiday gone, consumers show less interest


    By Jaclyn Giovis | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
    May 27, 2008
    Article tools
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    Signs of a fast-approaching hurricane season are missing this year: retailers marketing deals to early-bird consumers and the state's tax break on supplies.

    Merchants including Home Depot and Wal-Mart which in past years promoted heavily around the state's 12-day tax-free holiday have not begun to set up displays with batteries, gas cans and generators at many area stores. And the state cut the sales tax holiday on hurricane supplies because of budget constraints.

    "There hasn't been a great push from the customer or a desire for the typical hurricane items," said Kamal Akbar, general manager of Home Depot in Boca Raton. "This year is not the same as years in the past."

    Hurricane season which begins Sunday has quietly blown over South Florida two years in a row, leaving residents more complacent. Last year, consumer demand for supplies during the 12-day tax holiday was lackluster and stores were overstocked with storm staples at the season's June kickoff. This year, the weak economy and sluggish housing market have put a damper on retail sales as shoppers are battling high gas prices and food costs.


    For many South Floridians buying supplies presents another financial burden in the challenging economy.

    Ruth Rosario, 48, of Pompano Beach normally waits for the Florida tax-free holiday to kick in so that she can get her house storm-ready. She says it's "not fair" that the state cut the program when consumers are pinching pennies.

    "I was waiting for that to begin shopping," Rosario said. "That was a relief. Now we have to buy anyway, but not like other years."


    South Florida emergency management officials are concerned that tough times are forcing scores of South Floridians like Rosario to take a wait-and-see approach to hurricane preparedness.

    "We understand the constraints people are under now as far as the economy is concerned," said Carl Fowler, spokesman for the Broward County Emergency Management division. "It's tight for all of us. All we ask is people do what they can to prepare."

    Residents can manage costs by building up a collection of supplies over time, he said, noting the county's Web site www.broward.org/hurricane also offers good tips on how to prepare and save.

    Fowler, who hosts community outreach programs on hurricane preparedness, says consumers and businesses have voiced concerns about the costs associated with hurricane readiness. Many also have lost a sense of urgency because South Florida hasn't had a hurricane since Wilma in 2005, he said.

    "We need to remind ourselves that we're still in a very active cycle," Fowler said.

    Publix Super Markets and others say they plan to stock shelves with supplies, run ads on popular items, and promote hurricane readiness next month. But whether advertised savings will be deep enough to bring relief to consumers remains to be seen.

    Kim Jaeger, spokeswoman for Publix, says shoppers can save money by checking closets and pantries for items such as good batteries and flashlights that may have been forgotten, and buying nonperishable food items in family-size packages.

    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business...,6226227.story
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  14. #14
    Gird your loins Daisy Hill's Avatar
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    Van Halen Rules excellent post You are obviously a weather geek, whereas I am a disaster geek.

    Before, during and after a disaster there is a critical need for accurate and upto date information. I would like to add a feew helpful (I hope) websites regarding disaster preparedness and recovery.

    www.redcross.org offers excellent preparedness information as well as a site where you can register as "safe and well" in the event of a disaster in your area. You might want to consider taking a disaster action class or 2 so that you can be of assistance to your community in time of need...they are free at your local chapter and some beginning courses are even offered online!

    www.fema.gov The Red Cross has teamed up with Fema for the "Get a Kit, Make a Plan, Be informed" program. FEMA has great info on how to protect yourself and your property in the event of a natural or man made disaster.
    This site features great check lists for disaster kits. Everyone puts water and batteries in their disaster kits...but what about diapers? and feminine hygiene products? In my classes I even suggest condoms....hey ... disaster sex happens and is frequently followed 9 months later by a spike in the birth rate!

    www.emergency.cdc.gov Disaster sites are dirty inhospitable places people....learn how to stay healthy and deal emotionally when a disaster strikes close to home. Also great info on chemical hazards, bio terrorism and pandemic flu

    www.noaa.gov and www.noaawatch.gov... an all hazard nationwide watch

    www.floridadisaster.org a Florida emergency management agency site great for advanced planning for Florida newbies and the latest disaster info for the rest. It has a link to the SERT homepage

    wwwcf.fhwa.dot.gov/webstate.htm links to every state's department of transportation sites including www.dot.state.fl.us and www.fl511.com

    If you don't live in florida, look up your state and county EMA, health department and state and local health department websites to help determine what your local hazards are and how to prepare for them.

    Be careful out there people!
    Last edited by Daisy Hill; 05.28.08 at 04:06 PM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daisy Hill View Post
    Van Halen Rules excellent post You are obviously a weather geek, whereas I am a disaster geek.
    Actually, I'm a lot wx geek and a little disaster geek. A friend of mine and I helped deliver canned water (from Budweiser) after Andrew. The devestation after that storm was, and still is, beyond words. We went into areas where there was not much more than migrant worker shacks and farm buildings before landfall. The huge bay doors of some of the loading buildings were blown in and the pre-stressed concrete roof sections were lifted and dropped like they were toys.

    Oh, and by the way, if anyone believes that the "official" death toll from that storm is accurate, they would be far from being correct.
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