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  1. #1
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    11.19.17 @ 09:41 AM
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    Default H5N1 The Bird Flu

    Just been doing a bit of reading up on this bird flu and fears of a possible pandemic. Scary stuff. The English chief medical advisor to the government has been on the evening news making some pretty stark warnings. i'm just hoping this isn't a case of "responsible leakage" or whatever the phrase is. It is very rare for an official of this stature to make such bold statements unless there are real grounds for concern.
    There are stories all over obviously but http://www.msn.co.uk has a short article about the advisor's concerns.
    Time to batten down the hatches methinks.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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    Good Enough SassyLassy's Avatar
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    I've been really worried about this. I hope nothing serious happens
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    Good Enough CanCanSingSing's Avatar
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    11.26.17 @ 10:23 PM
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    I was speaking to a Doctor who attended a lecture on this. He said if it breaks out, then they're estimating 20% of the population would catch it. From that 20%, a further 5% would die. Pretty heavy stuff.
    Last edited by CanCanSingSing; 10.16.05 at 11:15 PM.
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  4. #4
    Eruption Dr5115's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 10:35 AM
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    Default Article in TIME

    Just read an article in TIME magazine. Right now it can only pass to people who have been in direct contact with birds. However, the fear is that the virus will evolve to the point where it will pass from person to person. At that point things will get interesting.

    Mother nature seems to always keep things in check................

  5. #5
    Hang 'Em High RRMB's Avatar
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    05.21.17 @ 06:42 PM
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    Whats even more frieghtening is that there is no vaccine for it. All the one's that are out there are supposedly ineffective.
    "Jesus, that fucker just crawled out of his hen house that was destroyed by the Alabama tornados. Fucking 280mph plus winds sucked the gleam off this bitch and passed it on to a bird in Rhoad Island." - Hurricane Halen 5/3/11 (about my birthday chicken from seenbad)

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  6. #6
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    11.19.17 @ 09:41 AM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr5115
    Just read an article in TIME magazine. Right now it can only pass to people who have been in direct contact with birds. However, the fear is that the virus will evolve to the point where it will pass from person to person. At that point things will get interesting.

    Mother nature seems to always keep things in check................
    The "Time" piece might be out of date. It hasn't been proven but it seems that at least one woman has caught it who has not been in contact with infected birds but it is feared that she was infected from contact with her son. Also there is now a case of a pig which has a variant form. i'm no biologist/viriologist but I'm sure there is some "famous" link between human and pig diseases. It seems the biggest fear though is that h5n1 will combine with a similar human flu virus and from then on I'll be camping out in the wilds. 75% mortality rate is a pretty bad bet. Hankies on faces everyone.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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  7. #7
    Eruption Dr5115's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 10:35 AM
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    The TIME piece is the most current issue. Although the data they printed certainly could be out of date as it seems more and more is learned about this virus every day.

  8. #8
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    11.19.17 @ 09:41 AM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr5115
    The TIME piece is the most current issue. Although the data they printed certainly could be out of date as it seems more and more is learned about this virus every day.
    Sorry, didn't mean to make it sound like I was correcting or anything like that. You're absolutely right, things are changing by the hour. Headline news here in Europe as you can imagine.
    Seems that after Romania and Turkey confirming cases we now have Greece and suspected cases just announced in Croatia and Bulgaria. Migrating birds are impossible to stop and the Danube delta and area are a major point on the route. At the moment only the first few hundred birds are starting to arrive. A week or so more and that number will be in the hundreds of thousands.
    Of course, the government here is stockpiling tamiflu, safe in the knowledge that it will have absolutely no effect on the killer strain of this virus. I guess they just want to look like they're doing something. Just like King Canute.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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  9. #9
    Atomic Punk TheresOnlyOneWay's Avatar
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    11.30.17 @ 11:15 AM
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    More than 1,000 poultry found dead in Macedonia
    Oct 17 10:13 AM US/Eastern
    Email this story

    More than 1,000 poultry were found dead in Macedonia at the weekend, but experts played down fears that the deadly strain of bird flu had spread from nearby Turkey and Romania.

    The chickens and turkeys were discovered in the villages of Germijan and Mogila, some 200 kilometres (120 miles) southwest of Skopje, the capital of the former Yugoslav republic, the Dnevnik newspaper reported.


    In addition, many pigeons were found dead in Tetovo, west of Skopje, the daily said without elaborating.

    http://www.breitbart.com/news/na/051....v5cd6a71.html

    Macedonian authorities said there was "no reason to panic" despite the fact that the H5N1 virus that has killed more than 60 people in Asia had been confirmed in Turkey and Romania in recent days.

    "The first results have shown the deaths were probably caused by (a common) 'bird plague' as the chickens were not properly vaccinated," said Nina Dimovska of the government's Veterinary Inspectorate.

    Authorities were testing the dead poultry, with results expected within a few days, Dimovska added.

    Another health official said authorities had implemented tough measures to prevent the spread of any disease.

    Macedonia's government has formed two commissions overseeing measures to prevent any outbreak of bird flu.
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  10. #10
    Atomic Punk
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    12.11.17 @ 04:37 PM
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    China, Europe report new bird flu outbreaks

    China reported a fresh outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu amid new reports of the avian illness in Russia, Romania and Macedonia.

    China's state news agency, Xinhua, reported Wednesday that 2,600 birds died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the country's northern region.

    Xinhua said the birds were discovered in a breeding facility near the village of Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia. The news agency didn't provide any details other than to say that the "epidemic is under control."

    China had earlier outbreaks of bird flu this year in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet.

    Russia confirmed more bird flu cases on Monday, raising fears it could spread over Europe, but a U.N. official said the best way to stop it was for donors to pay up and fight it where it began, among Asian fowl.

    The latest case in Russia killed 12 hens at a private dacha in Tambov, 400 km (250 miles) southeast of Moscow, last week. Authorities culled 53 ducks and hens and imposed a quarantine.

    Tests confirmed it was the H5N1 avian flu strain which can infect humans, though not yet pass between them, officials said.

    The European Union was poised to ban all imports of captive wild birds after a parrot died of H5N1 in quarantine in Britain.

    More dead birds were found and taken for tests in Germany, Croatia, Hungary and Portugal as suspect cases multiplied.

    But the numbers involved in Europe are still small and no humans there have been infected, unlike Asia where 61 people died after close contact with infected birds.

    A World Health Organization official from Asia said Europe still had good prospects of stopping H5N1 reaching its tame bird population because it had reacted faster and more openly.

    "There is an excellent chance for Europe to contain the Asian flu," said Shigeru Omi.

    The U.N. food agency's head said the world must focus on Asia, and on stopping the virus passing between birds, as the best way to prevent the nightmare scenario of it mixing with a human strain to cause pandemic deadly flu.

    "Too much time has gone by and even now we seem to focus more on addressing a possible pandemic which is spread from human to human," said Jacques Diouf, director general of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

    "It's good to be ready should this happen. But for the time being we have 140 million birds killed or dying or have died because of avian influenza, with $10 billion of costs ... and it is still there (in Asia) that we are having contamination to human beings," he told Reuters in an interview in Canada.

    He said the FAO had helped develop a $175 million strategy to control H5N1, which surfaced in South Korea two years ago, and had received pledges of $30 million in aid -- but donors had not yet handed over a single cent.

    WESTWARDS

    U.S. health officials, meanwhile, said on Monday they feared counterfeiters would try to cash in on the demand for Tamiflu, one of the few drugs that can treat bird flu, and said they were putting into effect measures to prevent this.

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said it would work to help researchers and companies develop new flu drugs that might treat H5N1 and to work quickly to approve them.

    Carried by migratory birds, H5N1 has now moved west as far as European Russia, Turkey and Romania.

    "If, as we think, migratory birds will be one of the ways by which avian influenza is spreading around the world we can expect ... the problem in the Near East, in East and West Africa and naturally in North America and South America," said Diouf.

    Croatia said it would cull more poultry after finding two more dead wild swans suspected of having an avian flu strain in a rural area where flu was found last week. The strain has yet to be identified.

    Several geese and seagulls found dead north of Lisbon, in a fishing port where migrating birds are common, were being tested for flu, Portugal said.

    German officials said on Monday night that 25 geese and ducks had been found dead in a pond near the town of Neuwied, close to the former German capital Bonn. Tests would be carried out on Tuesday to determine whether they had died of bird flu.

    Countries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa have taken steps to try to stop migrating birds mixing with domestic fowl.

    To close one possible channel of infection, the European Commission proposed a temporary ban on imports of wild fowl as pets. Veterinary experts will decide on Tuesday.

    Fernand Sauer, director of public health and risk assessment at the European Commission, said confusion between different types of influenza was to blame for an exaggerated fear in Europe about the risks, which had reached hysteria.

    Countries that have already suffered from flu outbreaks were redoubling their efforts to stop its return.

    North Korea said mechanisms were in place to eliminate "any slight symptoms in time," using its experience from an outbreak of a different strain earlier this year when more than 200,000 chickens were destroyed and 1.1 million poultry vaccinated.

    A report that China would close its borders if it detected human-to-human transmission of bird flu unsettled Hong Kong stocks, with shares in hotels, retailers and airlines sliding.

    An Australian firm said on Monday it was confident a vaccine it was testing in humans could protect against a pandemic form of the H5N1 virus unless it undergoes major genetic changes.

    CSL Ltd, the world's largest maker of blood plasma products, has begun human vaccine trials using different dosages and hopes to know results by February.
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  11. #11
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    11.19.17 @ 09:41 AM
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    cnn.com has a short piece today about how this moving along nicely. Seems a cat in Germany has died from bird flu and that a load of tigers in Thailand who ate infected birds died. Also,they managed to pass the virus onto other tigers who later died. Oops.
    Anyone for KFC?
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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  12. #12
    Atomic Punk ziggysmalls's Avatar
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    12.16.17 @ 08:21 AM
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    Well I am not going to get worked up about it. In the 70's it was herpes, 80's AIDS, 90's it was Y2K, now its global warming and the flu.

    I am more worried about driving home safely in the snow then catching the bird flu.

  13. #13
    Atomic Punk TheresOnlyOneWay's Avatar
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    11.30.17 @ 11:15 AM
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    Looks like it's finally gone human to human.

    Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients (Update1) May 23 (Bloomberg) -- All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus.

    A team of international experts has been unable to find animals that might have infected the people, the World Health Organization said in a statement today. In one case, a 10-year- old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said. Six of the seven people have died.

    Almost all of the 218 cases of H5N1 infections confirmed by the WHO since late 2003 can be traced to direct contact with sick or dead birds. Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.

    ``Considering the evidence and the size of the cluster, it's a possibility,'' Cheng said in a telephone interview. ``It depends on what we're dealing with in Indonesia. It's an evolving situation.''

    The 32-year-old father in the cluster of cases on the island of Sumatra was ``closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection,'' The WHO said in its statement. Three others, including the sole survivor in the group, spent a night in a ``small'' room with the boy's aunt, who later died and was buried before health officials could conduct tests for the H5N1 virus.

    `Directly Linked'

    ``All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness,'' the WHO said.

    While investigators have been unable to rule out human-to- human transmission in the Sumatran cluster, they continue to search for other explanations for how the infections arose, the WHO statement said.

    Health experts are concerned that if H5N1 gains the ability to spread easily among people, it may set off a lethal global outbreak of flu. While some flu pandemics are relatively mild, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

    So far, studies of the Sumatran outbreak and genetic analyses of the virus don't indicate the virus has undergone major changes, Cheng said. Scientists at WHO-affiliated labs in the U.S. and Hong Kong found no evidence that the Indonesian strain of H5N1 has gained genes from pigs or humans that might change its power or spreading ability, WHO said.

    Mutations

    ``These viruses mutate all the time and it's difficult to know what the mutations mean,'' Cheng said.

    Health officials earlier found strong evidence of direct human-to-human spread of H5N1 in Thailand in 2004. Scientists reported in the Jan. 27, 2005, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine that the H5N1 virus probably spread from an 11-year- old girl in Thailand to her aunt and mother, killing the mother and daughter. People who had more casual contact with the girl didn't become infected.

    In the Sumatran cluster, close, direct contact with a severely ill person was also needed for spread, Cheng said. Preliminary findings from the investigation indicate that the woman who died, considered to be the initial case, was coughing frequently while the three others spent the night in the same room. One of the three, a second brother, is the sole survivor. The other two, her sons, died.

    ``It looks like the same behavior pattern'' of close contact and caretaking during illness with the bird flu virus, Cheng said. To raise the level of pandemic alert ``it would have to be transmissible from more casual contact.''

    General Community

    The Indonesian Ministry of Health and international scientists are continuing their investigation to trace the origins of the infections, the WHO said in its statement.

    ``Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community,'' the WHO said. ``To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.''
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  14. #14
    Sinner's Swing! graeme's Avatar
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    11.19.17 @ 09:41 AM
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    You know, I's almost forgotten about this thing even though it has made it to the UK. The press went suddenly very quiet about the whole problem, which is what usually seems to happen in these cases.
    It always begs the question; are they quiet because it doesn't shift enough newspapers or is there some kind of "anti panic" motive.
    My guess is a bit of both. Gonna have to do a bit of research to catch up on this story.
    A man could lose himself in a country like this.

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    Atomic Punk Viking's Avatar
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    12.14.17 @ 03:26 PM
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    My sister just did a presentation on this last night. I don't know the whole thing, but according to her, the medical community is stocking up on body bags because of this stuff. Scary shit!
    "Viking - last to sleep, first to rise, last to leave, that's how the Nords of old rocked the house." ~ timmac in the 'Texas Linkers' thread talking about yours truly. :-)

 

 

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