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  1. #1
    Romeo Delight
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    Default Iran nuclear start up

    So Iran has announced that it will start up it's domestic nuclear power programme. Of course, everyone is going spastic about it with the German, French and English boys shouting about a serious international crisis. I have to admit to being surprised seeing that the Iranian authorities have requested that the IAEA be present to monitor their operations to prove that it's use is for a legitimate purposes and not in contravention of UN agreements for non nuclear proliferation. Funnier still that so many countries who are not nuclear powers are pursuing the same course of action anyway. Being such a high profile country I would honestly be surprised if they thought they would be able to develop weapons in such an observed climate and whilst I am not entirely trusting of the new encumbent President, quite conservative and hard line, there is very little for that country to gain in having a fledgling nuclear arsenal.Is this really the threat that we are told we should perceive?

  2. #2
    Damage your reputation seenbad's Avatar
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    The only reason we don't have an exit strategy out of Iraq is because we don't need one. It's our base to take out our real enemy over there, Iran.
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    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    Uh huh.

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    Outta Space Cowboy Scotty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seenbad
    The only reason we don't have an exit strategy out of Iraq is because we don't need one. It's our base to take out our real enemy over there, Iran.
    I would agree with that assessment.

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    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    Why?

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    Outta Space Cowboy Scotty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL
    Why?
    You don't feel we're on a collision course with Iran?

  7. #7
    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    I think it's a little late in the game for that. The forces we have in Iraq are adequate for the job they're doing, not for launching an offensive that would be larger than OIF and continuing to do the job in Iraq. Given how stretched we are at the moment, I can't see the level of forces required being a possibility anytime soon.

    Which brings time into the matter. Iran isn't that far from having the capability of building a bomb. hemingway said he didn't think there was a reason for Iraq to build one, but I'd say our presence on their Western border certainly provides a reason. The deterrent value is quite high.

    I imagine the Israelis acting would be much more likely than ourselves.

  8. #8
    Good Enough ebmm_axis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL

    I imagine the Israelis acting would be much more likely than ourselves.
    That's the ticket. They'll bomb the place just like they did Iraq's nuclear facilities.

    This is an old article.
    http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breakin...2335-4421r.htm
    I'm not going to copy and paste it here 'cause it's long, but it's right along these lines and good for a read for anybody interested.
    You can lead a horse to water, but that still won't make him a duck!

  9. #9
    Baluchitherium Guitar Shark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scotty5150
    You don't feel we're on a collision course with Iran?
    Nice, dodging a question by asking another question. Ever consider a career in politics?

  10. #10
    Romeo Delight
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL
    I think it's a little late in the game for that. The forces we have in Iraq are adequate for the job they're doing, not for launching an offensive that would be larger than OIF and continuing to do the job in Iraq. Given how stretched we are at the moment, I can't see the level of forces required being a possibility anytime soon.

    Which brings time into the matter. Iran isn't that far from having the capability of building a bomb. hemingway said he didn't think there was a reason for Iraq to build one, but I'd say our presence on their Western border certainly provides a reason. The deterrent value is quite high.

    I imagine the Israelis acting would be much more likely than ourselves.
    Whilst I agree with you, just to clarify, I didn't say that Iran doesn't have a reason to build a bomb. As you stated, it has very good reasons to want to arm itself. My point was that, with the sheer weight of observation on Iran, I personally don't think that it would be able to and knows full well that any movement in this direction would bring the world down to bear on it.
    My other point being that Iran had requested that the IAEA inspectors be on the ground to monitor the situation. Hardly the actions of a country desperate to arm itself in secret. The lessons of Iraq have been learnt by Iran and they fully understand the implications, I assume, of trying to build a serious weapons programme, even though it turned out that Iraq did not have such a capability. Even more of a deterrent when you think about it that, Britain at least, went to war on the scare mongering tactics of a document that was written 12 years ago by a university student for their thesis.
    The tension is ratcheting up though. If we, (USA/GB) did mount strikes against Iran the fall out would be on a scale never seen before. We have terrorist attacks as we speak yet, if a truly Islamic state were attacked, either proactively or through unreasonable logic based on deception, we will be seeing a truly global jihad with normally moderate muslims joining in the battle.
    Imagine that world.

  11. #11
    Hang 'Em High perticelli's Avatar
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    The tension is ratcheting up though. If we, (USA/GB) did mount strikes against Iran the fall out would be on a scale never seen before. We have terrorist attacks as we speak yet, if a truly Islamic state were attacked, either proactively or through unreasonable logic based on deception, we will be seeing a truly global jihad with normally moderate muslims joining in the battle.
    Imagine that world.
    for one, do you think that terrorists are withholding attacks right now because they simply dont have the motivation that an Iranian offensive would provide?
    Second, Iran IS the center of fundemental Islam, as well as a gateway and safe haven for all terrorists of the Muslim faith. Their "Theocracy" isnt much of a front for peaceful relations w/ us or israel anyway.

    I agree, however, that it seems more likely for Israel to repeat their iraq-attack than it does for us to intitially cross the borders...but if neccessary, we'll be ready. We are already doing much on the ground in that poor excuse for humanity--everything doesnt have to be done with tanks and missiles.

    Also,related, what do you think is the likely events that would transpire after Israel gives up Gaza and IF the violence doesnt end as a result of that initiative?
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  12. #12
    Romeo Delight
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    Quote Originally Posted by perticelli
    for one, do you think that terrorists are withholding attacks right now because they simply dont have the motivation that an Iranian offensive would provide?
    Second, Iran IS the center of fundemental Islam, as well as a gateway and safe haven for all terrorists of the Muslim faith. Their "Theocracy" isnt much of a front for peaceful relations w/ us or israel anyway.

    I agree, however, that it seems more likely for Israel to repeat their iraq-attack than it does for us to intitially cross the borders...but if neccessary, we'll be ready. We are already doing much on the ground in that poor excuse for humanity--everything doesnt have to be done with tanks and missiles.

    Also,related, what do you think is the likely events that would transpire after Israel gives up Gaza and IF the violence doesnt end as a result of that initiative?
    Did you read my post. I didn't even hint that terrorists were witholding attacks. I said that moderate Muslims, not currently sympathetic to the radicals, might be drawn into it.
    Second I said that if a truly Muslim state were attacked etc. Yes. Iran is that Muslim state that I was talking about. I thought it was obvious.
    I do however agree with the seconded idea that Israel would be the first to get "military" on Iran. They've bombed Iran before on this very issue. If you look at my original post I think you'll agree that what I was saying was, Is Iran a big enough bogeyman, given the current climate, to warrant taking such enormous risks? My feeling is no, given that, whatever happens, reprisals would be far reaching and we are talking decades more before any kind of reconciliation would be possible. And perhaps the threat is more to do with media hysteria, prejudice and preconception of events than the reality. Iran doesn't want a war that much is pretty obvious. And the anger that the average Iranian feels towards us Westerners is not so much to do with hating our freedoms but more to do with hating the fact that we feel it necessary to tell them how they should be living.
    Just to clarify my thinking though. Do not for one second believe I have any soft and tender thoughts for the fanatics who would kill innocents.
    I mean that about both sides.

  13. #13
    Hang 'Em High perticelli's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hemingway
    Did you read my post. I didn't even hint that terrorists were witholding attacks. I said that moderate Muslims, not currently sympathetic to the radicals, might be drawn into it.
    Second I said that if a truly Muslim state were attacked etc. Yes. Iran is that Muslim state that I was talking about. I thought it was obvious.
    I do however agree with the seconded idea that Israel would be the first to get "military" on Iran. They've bombed Iran before on this very issue. If you look at my original post I think you'll agree that what I was saying was, Is Iran a big enough bogeyman, given the current climate, to warrant taking such enormous risks? My feeling is no, given that, whatever happens, reprisals would be far reaching and we are talking decades more before any kind of reconciliation would be possible. And perhaps the threat is more to do with media hysteria, prejudice and preconception of events than the reality. Iran doesn't want a war that much is pretty obvious. And the anger that the average Iranian feels towards us Westerners is not so much to do with hating our freedoms but more to do with hating the fact that we feel it necessary to tell them how they should be living.
    Just to clarify my thinking though. Do not for one second believe I have any soft and tender thoughts for the fanatics who would kill innocents.
    I mean that about both sides.
    yeas i read it and quoted a part of it..but let me clarify if i can.
    I reject the idea that we will see "moderate" muslims attack on an "unprecedented scale" and a "truly global jihad" if we attack Iran.
    I reject it because i reject the assumption it makes that that isnt the case right now!
    We ARE in a GLOBAL jihad right now!
    moderate muslims ARE involved, many in ways we dont see..much like many Americans support our side..with money, supplies, morale, etc.
    Also, we see almost ZERO leaders of the incredibly vast muslim communities stepping up to assist us in stopping what some of the rhetoric claims "isnt islamic behavior at all" or "isnt representative of islam". You would think if the world were looking at this as an Islamic vs. Christian/Jewish conflict and the Islamic world didnt think that was accurate or even desireable, they would do something to show this position, other than rhetoric, which we all know , is cheap.

    I will say that i think we are of the same opinion overall, although you're last sentence there muddied the water a bit..

    The fact is, we are involved in a global jihad, we are engaged globally, although not all as traditional military conflicts, and the enemy strategy, which ,in my view, is based on cowardice(even if it is the only way they can wage their war and survive) is doing everything they can, short of all 1 billion muslims grabbing guns and starting to shoot, to reach their goals fo removing us and israel from "their" lands and eradicating the lifestyle of the "great satan" and the evil Zionists.
    i dont think attacking Iran, syria or any other islamic nation will change what the enemy is doing because they cannot change. If they decide to confront our military on battlefields, en masse, they will be slaughtered, and they know it. Noone ever said they weren't smart..they are,,and very passionate and dedicated.But it is a war of attrition from their view and a long-term, "wait the beast out" sdtrategy. they are banking on Us eventually tiring of the conflict and our penchant, albeit a relatively new one, to not be able to stomach casualties and extended combat.
    ITs a shame we dont learn from ALL of our past military history..one of the greatest, and possibly THE greatest lesson..."UNITED WE STAND (and win), DIVIDED WE FALL(and lose).
    What good are your individual freedoms and rights w/o a nation?
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    Outta Space Cowboy Scotty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guitar Shark
    Nice, dodging a question by asking another question. Ever consider a career in politics?
    Good fuck man. What are you 12?

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    Outta Space Cowboy Scotty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL
    I think it's a little late in the game for that. The forces we have in Iraq are adequate for the job they're doing, not for launching an offensive that would be larger than OIF and continuing to do the job in Iraq. Given how stretched we are at the moment, I can't see the level of forces required being a possibility anytime soon.

    Which brings time into the matter. Iran isn't that far from having the capability of building a bomb. hemingway said he didn't think there was a reason for Iraq to build one, but I'd say our presence on their Western border certainly provides a reason. The deterrent value is quite high.

    I imagine the Israelis acting would be much more likely than ourselves.
    I definitely believe we're in no shape to launch another offensive right now. In relation to a "new" Iraq serving as a launchpad in the Middle East, yes, I believe that's perfectly reasonable and probably likely. But I certainly hope that doesn't happen prematurely. Soldiers on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan need significant leave to "recharge" and become familiar with grass again.

    While I agree with Seenbad that we do need a presence there, the landscape of our military in terms of morale and other pesky issues will keep Iran on the backburner for some time, methinks.
    But I do believe Iran should be dealt with. Whether that means diplomacy or military action is yet to be seen.

 

 

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