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  1. #1
    Good Enough ebmm_axis's Avatar
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    Default Taiwan and China conflict.

    Is anybody following this at all? Talk about potential world changing events...
    Will we defend Taiwan militarily like Bush says? OUCH!

    All of the Chinese sweat shops making American products, man, they've been pocketing all of the loose change to their advantage, haven't they?

    They have the army, weapons, numbers, and an economy that could boom anytime soon... And we think the middle east is our problem...


    CNN


    BEIJING, China (CNN) -- Taiwan's government has warned that China's new anti-secession law is a "war bill" that will have a "serious impact" on security in the region.

    Calling the measure a "serious provocation," Joseph Wu, chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council told The Associated Press it "restricts Taiwan's freedom and democracy, and has a serious impact on security in the East-Asia region."

    On Monday, China's National People's Congress authorized the use of military force to stop any independence move by the island.

    The measure "represents the common will and strong determination of the Chinese people to safeguard the territorial integrity" of China, NPC chairman Wu Bangguo said.

    But Wu added the measure would only be used if Taiwan declared independence or if negotiations for peaceful reunification are exhausted.

    Leaders in Beijing consider Taiwan a renegade province after Nationalist troops lost the civil war on the mainland and fled to the island in 1949.

    China has long threatened to take military action to prevent Taiwan from declaring formal independence, but Monday's move lays a legal framework behind those threats.

    Taiwan officials were quick to call the measure a "war bill," coming as China boosts its military spending by 13 percent to $30 billion.

    "The anti-secession law is a law that authorizes war," Taiwan cabinet spokesman Cho Jung-tai told reporters.

    "It has caused resentment in Taiwan and opposition in the international community. China has to bear the responsibility and pay a price for this law."

    But Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the new legislation was not a "war bill" and warned outsiders not to get involved.

    "This is a law advancing peaceful unification between the sides. It is not targeted at the people of Taiwan, nor is it a war bill," Wen said at a news conference, shortly after the law was passed.

    The law also declares that the status of Taiwan "is China's internal affair, which subjects to no interference by any outside forces."

    In Washington, the Bush administration last week called it "unhelpful" and urged Beijing to reconsider the bill.

    China hopes the law will deter Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian from pushing for the island's independence before the end of his second and last term in 2008, analysts told Reuters news agency.

    Despite the legislation, analysts say the People's Liberation Army has no immediate plans to attack Taiwan and the "non-peaceful" means is not specifically a reference to war. It could, for example, be economic sanctions or blockades.

    Reuters reports the new law will feature in talks between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing in Beijing on March 20-21.

    Washington recognizes China but is Taiwan's main supporter and arms supplier.

    U.S. President George W. Bush has pledged to help Taiwan defend itself against any Chinese attack.
    You can lead a horse to water, but that still won't make him a duck!

  2. #2
    Atomic Punk TheresOnlyOneWay's Avatar
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    US Watches China Warily
    By Adam Brookes
    BBC Pentagon correspondent
    3-14-5
     
    By steps big and small, China is changing the balance of power in the world.
     
    It is modernising its military and expanding its reach with mobile launchers that could fire missiles into the American north-west and a navy and air force that could operate well beyond its borders.
     
    None of this has escaped the notice of the United States which is calculating how to respond to China's emergence as a strategic power.
     
    Shifting balance of power
     
    In the strange calculus nations use to measure strategic power, individual pieces of equipment can have radical, even world changing, implications.
     
    China, for example, has long possessed ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. But in the last few years China has developed a system to launch those missiles from trucks.
     
    The system is called a Transporter-Erector-Launcher, or TEL. The missile it carries is called a Dongfeng-31. "Dongfeng" means East Wind.
     
    The TEL not only transports the DF-31. The missile is erected and then launched from the vehicle. The entire system is mobile.
     
    "This means in a crisis China can disperse its ballistic missile forces and have a high degree of confidence some of it would survive a pre-emptive strike by a foreign power," says James Mulvenon, who heads a new private think tank in Washington, the Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis (Cira).
     
    US analysts believe the DF-31 will be deployed in the next few years. They also believe the missile has the range to hit the north-western United States.
     
    "This in a broader sense gives China a true survivable nuclear deterrent and the confidence that goes along with that in terms of its military policy and the conduct of its national security policy abroad," says Mr Mulvenon.
     
    For the United States, the advent of such a system begins the shift in the strategic equation.
     
    Flashpoint Taiwan
     
    And it is not only DF-31s that are reshaping the strategic landscape.
     
    China is thought to be close to developing an effective in-flight refuelling capacity.
     
    That will give its air force a much longer range. It is investing in submarines, and in command and control systems which it hopes will allow it to compete on a high technology battlefield.
     
    China's new confidence will show itself in the coming years. We will probably see the Chinese navy moving to secure sea lanes and oil supplies from the Middle East.
     
    We will see its air force roaming much further from home, monitoring other forces in the region.
     
    And, maybe, we will see China really gearing up to retake Taiwan by force.
     
    The head of the CIA, Porter Goss, told Congress recently that his agency believes China is ready to fight for Taiwan.
     
    "China's military build-up threatens the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait," said Mr Goss.
     
    If Taiwan, in its efforts to establish a true, independent nationhood, pushed Beijing beyond the limits of its tolerance, "we assess that Beijing will respond with varying degrees of force," he said.
     
    The last thing America needs now - with its military already extended in Iraq and Afghanistan - is to be sucked into a conflict with China over Taiwan.
     
    When, a week ago, China announced that, for a fifth year in a row, it was increasing its military spending, there was not much surprise in Washington, but a perennial anxiety over China's long-term intentions was reinforced.
     
    "The bottom line is what these annual increases tell us about intent," says Cira's James Mulvenon.
     
    "[The Chinese] believe the potential for a conflict with the US over Taiwan is a very real scenario. And they have to have real, credible, concrete military options should that occur," he said.
     
    China says publicly that it will spend about $30bn this year on its military. Analysts in the US suspect the real figure is perhaps half as much again.
     
    Even so, China's military spending is only about one-tenth of what the US is due to spend in the coming year.
     
    But in preparing for a "Taiwan scenario", the Chinese have a focussed objective, which allows them to channel their spending towards specific, rather than contingency, plans.
     
    Trans-Atlantic friction
     
    If America's strategic preoccupations with China are long-term, there exist short-term preoccupations that threaten the equilibrium of this delicate, changing relationship.
     
    China has announced a planned "anti-secession law" aimed at preventing a formal statement of independence by Taiwan, and reinforcing the threat of force.
     
    A White house spokesman has called the planned law "unhelpful", and has asked China to "reconsider".
     
    And the US considers equally unhelpful a plan by European countries to lift the arms embargo on China, which was imposed in 1989.
     
    US analysts say sensitive technology could fall into Chinese hands if European countries recommence selling weapons systems to China.
     
    They worry particularly that some European battlefield communication and command and control systems are designed to operate alongside US systems.
     
    Purchasing those European systems, they argue, could allow China insight into the way the US military operates.
     
    And in Congress, they smell a rat.
     
    The Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Lugar, told the BBC he believed the Europeans were simply trying to curry favour with Beijing in order to win lucrative business contracts for companies like Airbus.
     
    "Folks weren't born yesterday in this country," he said. This has the makings of a major trans-Atlantic row.
     
    But it is a measure of China's leverage and its attractiveness as a business opportunity that Europe would risk a diplomatic spat with the United States.
     
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...as/4342527.stm
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  3. #3
    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    Nobody cares until problems become immediate, and that's the problem with our government. China is financing our debt. That closing-on-a-trillion-dollar-deficit that we demand is something that we will owe to countries like China in the not-so-distant future. Our trade imbalance gives them all the cash they need to make arms purchases from Russia, and bankrolls their developing defense industry. They're using more and more oil each year, and that's why the price of crude keeps going up--which further damages our economy.

    Our leaders are failing us on this, and we're allowing them to do so. It really pisses me off. It's incompetence on a grand scale, because they can't stop pandering to the American public even for a moment. They won't tell us that we need to raise taxes, and they won't reduce spending in any meaningful way. If I didn't believe it is stupidity, I'd damn sure believe that it is treason.

  4. #4
    Good Enough ebmm_axis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL
    Nobody cares until problems become immediate, and that's the problem with our government. China is financing our debt. That closing-on-a-trillion-dollar-deficit that we demand is something that we will owe to countries like China in the not-so-distant future. Our trade imbalance gives them all the cash they need to make arms purchases from Russia, and bankrolls their developing defense industry. They're using more and more oil each year, and that's why the price of crude keeps going up--which further damages our economy.


    Our leaders are failing us on this, and we're allowing them to do so. It really pisses me off. It's incompetence on a grand scale, because they can't stop pandering to the American public even for a moment. They won't tell us that we need to raise taxes, and they won't reduce spending in any meaningful way. If I didn't believe it is stupidity, I'd damn sure believe that it is treason.
    Is this really the problem? Can the govt. really only function on short sighted terms? Is this really the best the US has to offer?

    I dunno, but, as things are now, it is quite apparent. The "poster boy politician and purchased smile is what runs our govt." becomes more and more believable. Especially after these last 12 years.

    I would like to think that's not the case. But what room is there for justification of this?

    Will China attack Taiwan? I think so. Their time is now ripe. This is their time to flex their muscles. God, I hope not...
    You can lead a horse to water, but that still won't make him a duck!

  5. #5
    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    China can't invade Taiwan at the moment and hope to succeed. They've got a large military, but it's sorely lacking in force projection capabilities. That's changing, though, and within the next twenty years it will be a viable course of action for them.

    The law is just another way to pressure Taiwan. It's a delicate game that's being played, and ridiculous in most ways.

    The bet that our politicians are (and have been) making is that we can Americanize China before China becomes a superpower. The later will happen, but the former is looking more and more like a sucker play. What we're really teaching them is that their brand of communism can work. We've got their people hooked on western goods and services, which was always the idea. The notion that they'd be able to get enough of them under communism doesn't seem to be something we seriously considered. I do think that the strategy was sound, but it simply can't work when they keep lending our own money back to us.

    Alexis de Tocqueville was spot on. "The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

  6. #6
    Hang 'Em High Hurricane Halen's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 08:02 AM
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    Man o Man, I hope this doesn't cause the cost of, "Fried Rice" to go up, at my favorite chinese resturant.

    HH <------loves da fried rice---------
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  7. #7
    Atomic Punk TheresOnlyOneWay's Avatar
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    11.30.17 @ 11:15 AM
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    REPORT: CHINA, RUSSIA TO 'REHEARSE INVASION OF TAIWAN'
    Thu Mar 17 2005 11:02:09 ET

    MOSCOW, March 17. (RIA Novosti)-Yesterday, Chief of the Russian General Staff Yury Baluyevsky left for China to settle a scandal over the first Russian-Chinese military exercise, Commonwealth-2005, which is due to be held this fall off the Yellow Sea coast, writes Kommersant.
    The initial plans were to practice operational teamwork in combating terrorism during the exercise. However, Beijing, skillfully changing the format of the exercise, has tried to re-orient the two countries' armies to practicing an invasion of Taiwan.
    The choice of where the exercise will take place became a stumbling block. The Russian military selected the Xinjiang-Uigur autonomous region, basing their choice on the area's problematic nature due to Uigur separatists and its proximity to Central Asia, which has become an arena in the fight against international terrorism. However, Beijing flatly rejected the proposal. Instead, it suggested the Zhejiang province near Taiwan.
    A joint exercise in this area would look too provocative and trigger a strong reaction not only from Taiwan but also America and Japan, which recently included the island in the zone of their common strategic interests.
    Beijing is trying to use Russia as an additional lever of pressure on the disobedient island to show it that its policy is also causing dissatisfaction in Russia, from which the Taiwanese are expecting assistance in their dialogue with Beijing and bid to join the WTO and the UN.
    On the Russian military's insistence, the exercise was shifted north to the Shangdong peninsula. However, the Chinese are trying to change the format of the exercise with proposals to enlarge the contingents with Marines and Pacific Fleet warships. Marine landings to seize the area will be practiced during the "antiterrorist" exercise.
    Russia's agreement to hold the exercise will inevitably cause a furor in America, Japan and Taiwan. But a refusal will spoil relations with China, which three months ago courteously agreed to Russia's proposal to hold an exercise.
    Developing...
    Sammy did the impossible. He made Van Halen better. Deal with it.
    Michael did the impossible. He made Van Halen better. Deal with it.
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    Q: who was the biggest douche that you have worked with?

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    Now the new David-Lee-Roth-Van Halen album, “Tokyo Dome In Concert,” is available for purchase, and it’s super, super, super, super, super, super, crazy bad. - Doug Elfman

  8. #8
    Good Enough ebmm_axis's Avatar
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    Thx for the info. INteresting, indeed.
    You can lead a horse to water, but that still won't make him a duck!

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    Hot sauce on everything Red's Avatar
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    Not to worry, folks, the Cold War is over, and the ChiComs and Russians are our wonderful friends and trading partners. They need us, right? Right?

    I think the US needs to double it's armed forces, get out of the UN, and get ready for what is almost inevitably going to come.

  10. #10
    Atomic Punk WinterlessIceness's Avatar
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    Russia ain't so stupid to support China as an ally if the last attacks Taiwan. Weaponry - of course (I believe China already has more Russian military units that Russia itself), but I don't think it will have to face America directly.

  11. #11
    Eruption Dr5115's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 12:52 AM
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeL
    Nobody cares until problems become immediate, and that's the problem with our government. China is financing our debt. That closing-on-a-trillion-dollar-deficit that we demand is something that we will owe to countries like China in the not-so-distant future. Our trade imbalance gives them all the cash they need to make arms purchases from Russia, and bankrolls their developing defense industry. They're using more and more oil each year, and that's why the price of crude keeps going up--which further damages our economy.

    Our leaders are failing us on this, and we're allowing them to do so. It really pisses me off. It's incompetence on a grand scale, because they can't stop pandering to the American public even for a moment. They won't tell us that we need to raise taxes, and they won't reduce spending in any meaningful way. If I didn't believe it is stupidity, I'd damn sure believe that it is treason.


    Well put.............

  12. #12
    Good Enough extreme red roth's Avatar
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    06.16.17 @ 09:53 AM
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    This may sound way too idealistic, stupid, or even racist, but is there anyway the rest of the industrialized world (communist or not) can band together to fight common enemies, such as extremist Muslim terrorist sects and the countries that support them?

    I'm untrained, and only somewhat well-read on the subject, but it would seem that these types (Osama bin Laden), are the ones everyone should be worrying about. Frankly, from what I've read China is our friend....not the kind you have over for dinner, get drunk with, and talk about the old times, but the kind of friend you see at a wedding, talk all night with, but never really cover any "heavy subjects".

    The answer to my question is probably that the world is a hell of a lot more complicated than that. I can accept it, but maybe we need more world summits and such just to kind of see how everyone is feeling these days. COMMUNICATION.
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    Atomic Punk jrk5150's Avatar
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    12.15.17 @ 09:56 AM
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    Quote Originally Posted by extreme red roth
    This may sound way too idealistic, stupid, or even racist, but is there anyway the rest of the industrialized world (communist or not) can band together to fight common enemies, such as extremist Muslim terrorist sects and the countries that support them?

    I'm untrained, and only somewhat well-read on the subject, but it would seem that these types (Osama bin Laden), are the ones everyone should be worrying about. Frankly, from what I've read China is our friend....not the kind you have over for dinner, get drunk with, and talk about the old times, but the kind of friend you see at a wedding, talk all night with, but never really cover any "heavy subjects".

    The answer to my question is probably that the world is a hell of a lot more complicated than that. I can accept it, but maybe we need more world summits and such just to kind of see how everyone is feeling these days. COMMUNICATION.
    Yes, it's too simplistic, but there is value in simplicity at times. It's easy to get caught up in the fine print and fail to step back and see the simplicity of the big picture.

    One of the major problems in global situations like this is the vast differences in culture. It's not easy to bridge the communication gap between cultures that have far different values. Hence, the current US strategy of conquest by "Americanism". We try not to go to war, we try to sell you jeans and coca cola. The hope is that we undermine the other's culture, bringing our values into play, allowing common ground.

    Yeah, on some issues, China is our "friend". But how do "they" define friend? China as a culture has has proven time and time again that they put a bit less value on life than "we" do. So no, terrorism isn't the horror to "them" that is is to "us". In fact, there is some value to them, since it weakens our economy, and put us more in debt to them.

    Are you all aware that China and Japan own a vast amount of our national debt? Our dollar would have collapsed by now except those two countries keep buying it for their own individual reasons. China has their currency artificially tied to ours, and the ability to buy our currency to manipulate theirs. This keeps them in the drivers seat on a variety of trade issues, since keeping their currency tied to ours (and cheaper than ours) makes sure that their goods are cheaper here than our good are there. Hence the trade deficit, and a growing portion of our debt in their hands.

    By the way, while Clinton got hammered for his China gaffes, this is all due to Bush and his massive budget deficits.

  14. #14
    Good Enough ebmm_axis's Avatar
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    Bottom line is this: We will defend Taiwan, China will invadeTaiwan. We are not friendly on this issue. With all of the complications that have been addressed in this thread in our deficit, dollar strength, Chinese growth, it's all adding up to be a HUGE problem.

    It worries me. MikeL pointed out that China hasn't got the umf yet to go into Taiwan. Good. I hope not. And I hope we can plan ahead and capitalize on that.
    You can lead a horse to water, but that still won't make him a duck!

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    Atomic Punk jrk5150's Avatar
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    I'm also not quite sure it's as hopeless as Mike seems to put it. We have big corporations investing massive amounts and building plants etc. in China. Unless they think they can close it all off and give the finger to the EU and US, they will eventually have to obey some rules. I say eventually because the investment in infrastructure and capital will get a bit addictive. Russia learned the hard way that you can't survive with a small economic block of your own, you need the global economy. There is a chance that they will end up too reliant on "our" cash to risk it all. Eastern Asia can't survive as an isolated unit.

    That said, you just have to hope that the shit doesn't hit the fan until they learn that little lesson.

 

 

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