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  1. #1
    Hang 'Em High Stuff No More's Avatar
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    01.08.05 @ 11:08 AM
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    I've noticed more than once people have said WB has to be putting pressure on Van Halen to get DLR back. However, my opinion is WB probably doesn't care one way or the other if they get DLR or Sammy back. Here's my case.

    WB is all about the bottom line and making money. They want to push records out the door. So, obviously, past record sales would be a good indication of potential money-making power. Let's compare the singers.

    No one can deny that Van Roth has sold more albums than Van Hagar. Two diamond albums will do that for you. But let's look at averaged.

    Average sales per album (Van Roth): 6.28 mil

    Now, let's be realistic. The chances of Van Roth returning and pushing Van Halen to sell another 10 million copies of a new album is practically zilch. For kicks let's just look at the totals without those diamond albums.

    Average sales per album (Van Roth w/o VH & 1984): 4.35 mil

    So over 6 albums counting their two diamond releases, Van Roth historically pushed about 6 million an album, and over 4 without those diamond albums, they pushed an average of about 4 million and album.

    Now, turning to Van Hagar, let's look at the average sold for those five albums.

    Average sales per album (Van Hagar): 4.1 mil

    Interesting. With those two 10 million selling albums, Van Roth is only selling 2 million more copies an album on average. Without them (adjusting for reality), they're virtually neck and neck. It would seem realistic potential future albums sales are essentially the same.

    Which brings two counterpoints that need addressing.

    1. Van Roth would equal instant big album sales.

    The only things we have to measure this by are sales of BoV1 and sales of DLR Band (to guage interest in new Van Roth and interest in Roth alone). BOV1 clocks in at 2.4 million. A nice number, but something that Van Hagar pulled in with ease. I don't think anyone knows the numbers of DLR Band, but I'd wager they are about the same as those for Ten13, maybe even slightly lower. I'll confess, I don't know for sure [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

    2. Van Hagar has a sales decline trend.

    My basic response to this is... so? If you look, Van Roth brand Van Halen had a decline in sales trend too from VH through FW. DD only pushed them back up 600,000 copies.

    One finally thing to bring up is popular appeal. Obviously, mainstream success = record sales. Why do you think Aerosmith records songs like Jaded? Comparing mainstream success:

    1. Van Roth:
    <UL TYPE=SQUARE><LI>4 Songs on Billboard Top 100 (3 in top 40) - Jump (1), Panama (13), Hot for Teacher (56), I'll Wait (13).
    <LI>3 Songs on Mainstream Rock charts - Hot for Teacher (34), CGTSNM (12), MWM (1)[/list]

    2. Van Hagar:
    <UL TYPE=SQUARE><LI>4 Albums reached #1 on Billboards 200.
    <LI>11 Songs on Billboard Top 100 (9 in top 40) - WCTBL (3), Dreams (22), Love Walks In (22), When It's Love (5), Finish What Ya Started (13), Feels So Good (35), Black and Blue (34), Right Now (55), Top of the World (27), CSLY (30), Not Enough (97)
    <LI>23 Songs on Billboard Mainstream Rock charts - Amsterdam (9), Best of Both Worlds (12), Black and Blue (1), Cabo Wabo (31), CSLY (2), DTM(WLCD) (1), Dreams (6), Feels so Good (6), FWYS (2), Humans Being (1), Love Walks In (4), Man on a Mission (21), Not Enough (27), Poundcake (1), Right Now (2), Runaround (1), Summer Nights (33), The Dream is Over (7), Seventh Seal (36), Top of the World (1), When It's Love (1), WCTBL (1), Won't Get Fooled Again (1)
    <LI> Grammy Award winning album - FUCK[/list]

    Basically, the Van Hagar brand of Van Halen is historically more likely to score a charting song, which brings Top 40 station airplay which brings purchases from casual "fans."

    Bottom line, it seems from these numbers, WB is most likely indifferent as to which old singer they get back. If they put any pressure on the band, it is most likely, "NO NUMBER 4!"

    [Source: van-halen.com]
    "Just once I'd like to do the right thing and not get punished for it."

  2. #2
    carpe damn diem billy007's Avatar
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    12.13.17 @ 09:10 AM
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    I have to refute a couple of points here:

    The Grammys that Van Halen won or were nominated for during the Hagar era were in categories that didn't even exist in the Roth era, therefore we do not know if they would have won one sooner.

    I don't know for sure, but I'd have to guess that Billboard didn't start keeping the "Mainstream Rock Chart" until 1984 or there certainly would've been more Dave-era songs on it. Just a hunch.

  3. #3
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    12.31.69 @ 04:00 PM
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    They really both balance out in different ways. For Van Halen as a band, both situations are money making propositions. You can also add that Van Halen won the American Music Award and three MTV Music Awards including "Video of the Year" with sammy. Dave gave them more attitude and a better stage show. I think this equation equals success on both sides of the scale. Anything outside of these two tips the scale in the wrong direction.

  4. #4
    Damage your reputation seenbad's Avatar
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    11.30.17 @ 06:15 PM
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    Donor

    Why would you want to exclude the two BEST selling dlr era albums for comparison sake? Maybe I quit reading too soon because I'm pressed for time, but thats like saying that grape cool-aid sells better than strawberry unless of course you take the strawberry flavor out and put in grape and add color then they can be on the same plain.

    I'll read more later. [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]
    sheepa latta peepah dabba looka foh a moopy

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  5. #5
    Sinner's Swing!
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    10.09.12 @ 02:50 PM
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    I don't think past album sales, awards and this kind of analysis are particularly relevant. A Roth reunion is going to be successful because of the mystique of an original line up reunion. Most of us remember Van Hagar but for many people Van Halen is a legend. A Van Hagar reunion would be sily at this point after the way Sammy departed as "lazy", a Van Halen reunion would be silly too - but the mystique factor trumps the silliness factor IMO.

    It's also irrelevant who is "better", but it's pretty clear that the Roth version holds the vast majority of public opinion on its side. There would have to be an awful lot of Dave-hype killing before a Van Hagar reunion would be remotely viable.


    On top of all that WB *is* pushing hard for a Roth reunion and has been since before Cherone left - that's a fact [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]
    Delusions of eloquence

  6. #6
    Eye suffacozza YEWW! Goo's Avatar
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    12.11.17 @ 05:34 PM
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    IMHO..Given the way the current musical climate is skewed, and van halens repetative alienation of casual fans, I'm not convinced past sales have anything to do with the sucess of a future reunion, it'll basically come down to the final product, and any resultant hype/interest in WHO they are reuniting with

    That Said

    -As seenbad said, you CANT pretend that 2 albums DIDNT sell what they did to back up your own argument!!! Thats nuts! Why not deduct sales from the top 2 sam albums as well?? Your ignoring the fact that 2 of the 6 albums with Roth SERIOUSLY captured the imagination of people - and not just Van Halen fans. 50 or 60 percent of people that own 'Just one Van Halen' album would have one of those two in their collections. Why?

    -How is DLR band - an album basically sold out of Daves car trunk, with NO label support, from a guy (as the more rabid Sammy fans keep reminding us every ten minutes) who's solo career was dead by 1990... even relevent? Compared with the label push WB would put behind either reunion. Same applies to 10-13. reunion would be a totally different thing to either guys waning solo sucesses.

    -ONLY sold 2 million albums more per album (even without the 2 biggest sellers). Dude.. that ONLY is probably around what VH would be TARGETING for their next release. ONLY 2 million. wow.

    -The 'Hit Singles' - a quick check of VH.com reveals that 'Dance the night away' hit number 15 on the charts, 'Pretty woman' hit 12. The list of hit singles goes on. Never mind the 'billboard mainstream rock' charts deal - (did it exist in the Roth Days? I dont know) . Were you not aware of these songs, or did you choose to exclude them as well to bolster your argument?

    I know your pushing the cart pretty hard for a Sam reunion SNM, but theres so much spin in this post, you oughta be writing speeches for politicians my good man !!!
    A little zen....... Headed your way.......

  7. #7
    Beloved Glenn's Avatar
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    02.13.15 @ 08:56 AM
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    Donor

    The only way I could see WB preferring Sammy over Dave would be longevity. All speculation of course, but I'd say they'd have better odds (once they get over their problems, if that's even possible) of putting out several albums with Sammy before imploding than with Dave. My feeling all along has been that it'll work with Dave, but it's going to be one album, one tour and that's it. I just don't see the relationship sustaining itself between Dave and the band any longer than that.

    And though I think they'd have a lot of work to do to repair the damage between Sam and the band, I do think that if they did repair the relationship, it would be more likely that they could put up with each other for a longer period of time than DLR/VH could.

    So (back to my original point, if I can remember it [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]), the only way I could see WB wanting Sammy back would be the thought that they could sell 2 million copies each of three seperate albums, as opposed to selling 4 million copies of one DLR album.

    But I just don't see that as happening. WB is going to want the money now, they aren't going to want to look at a long term plan for a band that is VH's age, especially considering that Sammy is 53 and VH with Sammy only put albums out every 3 years or so.

    Even though I'm sure most people at the label are realistic about the limited (in my opinion) odds of a DLR/VH reunion lasting beyond 2 years, they've also seen the once rock solid relationship with Sammy go sour, so I'm sure they'd still be happier to make that big payoff now.

    I really believe that VH's best chance of selling albums, selling concert tickets, getting on the radio, getting on video channels, getting major media spots (cover of Rolling Stone for example) and getting on TV shows (late night, SNL etc) is with Dave. It most likely won't last as long with Dave as it would with Sammy, but EVERYTHING will be bigger with Dave attached to the project.

  8. #8
    Baluchitherium
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    12.31.69 @ 04:00 PM
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    <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jonathan:

    WB *is* pushing hard for a Roth reunion and has been since before Cherone left - that's a fact [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


    *are* more than one brother [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br />God Bless the USA!!!!<br />~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  9. #9
    Hang 'Em High Stuff No More's Avatar
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    01.08.05 @ 11:08 AM
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    <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Goo:
    -The 'Hit Singles' - a quick check of VH.com reveals that 'Dance the night away' hit number 15 on the charts, 'Pretty woman' hit 12. The list of hit singles goes on. Never mind the 'billboard mainstream rock' charts deal - (did it exist in the Roth Days? I dont know) . Were you not aware of these songs, or did you choose to exclude them as well to bolster your argument?
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Don't blame me, blame the fact Brad obviously left those songs off of the lists in the "The Charts" section of the site. Somebody start the, "Fire Brad!" petition up! [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

    My point with VH and 1984, though, was not to ignore them, but simply that the likelihood of a Van Roth album reaching that point again is pretty low. I'd say the chances of them hitting 4 million would be low too unless it had a minor radio hit. 2 is probably about the best it can do, which is something that the radio-friendly Van Hagar has always been able to do. So from an album sales speculative front, to WB, it doesn't matter which of the old singers is back, just so long as it isn't #4.
    "Just once I'd like to do the right thing and not get punished for it."

  10. #10
    Eye suffacozza YEWW! Goo's Avatar
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    12.11.17 @ 05:34 PM
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    quote:
    Originally posted by Stuff No More:
    Don't blame me, blame the fact Brad obviously left those songs off of the lists in the "The Charts" section of the site. Somebody start the, "Fire Brad!" petition up! [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]


    LOL.... Ok, Who's hid the keys to the forklift. That things HEAVY!

    quote:
    My point with VH and 1984, though, was not to ignore them, but simply that the likelihood of a Van Roth album reaching that point again is pretty low. I'd say the chances of them hitting 4 million would be low too unless it had a minor radio hit. 2 is probably about the best it can do, which is something that the radio-friendly Van Hagar has always been able to do. So from an album sales speculative front, to WB, it doesn't matter which of the old singers is back, just so long as it isn't #4.


    Yeh and I agree those sales figures are WAY 'above and beyond' the normal that VH would expect, but by 'ignoring' them, your also ignoring the fact that - just like radio-friendly hagar-era singles - somehow those albums captures the imagination of people that wouldnt normally buy a VH album.
    A little zen....... Headed your way.......

  11. #11
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    02.21.17 @ 07:16 PM
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    I don't know if this point is relevant, but does the fact that the Roth albums have actually been in existence longer than the Hagar albums have anything to do with sales? The Van Halen album has been on sale for 23 years now and the oldest Hagar album, 5150, has been on sale for 15 years. It seems to me that the longer something is on the shelves, it will naturally sell more than something more recent. I'm not taking side here, I've just never seen anyone discuss it from this perspective.

  12. #12
    Eye suffacozza YEWW! Goo's Avatar
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    12.11.17 @ 05:34 PM
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    quote:
    Originally posted by naturallywired:
    I don't know if this point is relevant, but does the fact that the Roth albums have actually been in existence longer than the Hagar albums have anything to do with sales? The Van Halen album has been on sale for 23 years now and the oldest Hagar album, 5150, has been on sale for 15 years. It seems to me that the longer something is on the shelves, it will naturally sell more than something more recent. I'm not taking side here, I've just never seen anyone discuss it from this perspective.



    Good point too, and obviously the CD's introduction in 83/84 and its explosion in popularity later on has contributed sales to the Roth era albums.

    Once again though, these albums must have captured people in a big way to drive any significant amount of people into buying them twice. Also, Eddies innovative playing on those early albums will always generate sales to budding guitarists, regardless of singers
    A little zen....... Headed your way.......

  13. #13
    Atomic Punk MikeL's Avatar
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    Donor

    There was a pretty good discussion on album sales back around the time of the press releases last month in Main Discussion. If you're interested in how the numbers break down, you might want to have a look at it.

    All of that is in the past, though. Right now VH is a musical has-been. They've not been a going concern in some time, since 1996 if you want to be honest about what they've done for WB.

    That means they have to be marketed differently. I don't think it's realistic to say that marketing VH/Sam is as easy as VH/Dave. This is particurally true given the fizzled reunion of '96. Remember all of the hype then? It was everywhere. Why? Because Dave (and presumably the Good Times) were back. You could feel the energy amongst rock fans. Something that they desired had been long gone, and was close enough to smell. It was magical for most VH fans.

    Those VH fans are the key to this. Who bought most of those albums? People who first heard VH with DLR. Now, that might not describe the demographics here at the Links, but I think it's fair to say about the VH fanbase.

    WB would love to tap into this audience with something that will sell, but not just sell itself. There's a whole VH/Dave catalog that they just recently prepped for increasing sales. WB did that banking on the reunion happening, and driving sales of the back catalog. Funny how they only did the Dave albums, eh? Perhaps WB's marketing folks know a few things about their target market that we don't. Who'd have thought that? [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

    Reunions are marketed around nostalgia. It's that sense of something you once experienced, and the excitement of getting to experience that again. That sense of nostalgia is strongest around classic Van Halen. As much as we'd like to believe it's not about that, it is. And that's not such a bad thing.

    A Sam reunion wouldn't achieve anywhere near the excitement that a Dave one would. Some people will argue against that statement until they're blue in the face; meanwhile the rest of us will be revelling in the return of a legend. Not just DLR, and not just VH. VH with DLR.

  14. #14
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    02.21.17 @ 07:16 PM
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    <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MikeL:


    Reunions are marketed around nostalgia. It's that sense of something you once experienced, and the excitement of getting to experience that again. That sense of nostalgia is strongest around classic Van Halen. As much as we'd like to believe it's not about that, it is. And that's not such a bad thing.

    A Sam reunion wouldn't achieve anywhere near the excitement that a Dave one would. Some people will argue against that statement until they're blue in the face; meanwhile the rest of us will be revelling in the return of a legend. Not just DLR, and not just VH. VH with DLR.
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


    Excellent points!

  15. #15
    carpe damn diem billy007's Avatar
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    12.13.17 @ 09:10 AM
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    Nostalgia is a funny thing and it's not something that a 20 year old can fully understand (though God bless those young 'uns here that are wishing for a DLR/Van Halen reunion). Someone who's 20 has probably only been a fan of this band for 10 years or so, I've been a fan for some 22 years - more than that 20 year old's even been alive! And if you're a 20 year old that discovered Van Halen when you were in high school or just before you entered high school, your memories of good times with Van Halen centre around Sammy Hagar, and there ain't nothin' wrong with that. But it's hard for you to be truly nostalgic for those days when you're not that far removed from them - not a whole lot different in the world. On the other hand, Van Halen with Dave takes me back to an entirely different time, a time when I had no idea that I'd be working with computers for a living, who I'd be married to, what kind of kids I'd have. A time when a pack of baseball cards cost $.15. A time when you actually had to sneak into an R-rated movie and doing so was an accomplishment. A time when music wasn't quite so portable - no walkmans, discmans and certainly no mp3 players. Hearing Van Halen in the backyard meant moving the record player close to the window and blasting it, no personal stereos around. And if you wanted a song a friend had, you took your crappy mono tape recorder over to his house and stuck the microphone up to the speaker. Van Halen arrived during those times and set the world On Fire. And for those of us codgers old enough to remember the first time, we've been waiting 17 years to see 'em do it again. If you don't think nostalgia sells - all you have to do is look at the Beatles 1 album - ain't no Beatle fan in the world that doesn't already have all the songs on that CD, yet it's through the roof. You tell me why!

 

 

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